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Trump’s “America first” policy poses threat to Philippines

China and Mexico were the main focus of Donald Trump’s protectionist threats on the campaign trail. But the Philippines also stands out as vulnerable to any moves by the US towards isolationism. In this Weekly we look at the main channels through which the Philippines could be affected by a further shift towards protectionism in the US.
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Emerging Asia Economics Update

Thailand: gradual tightening cycle ahead

The Bank of Thailand hiked interest rates today by 25bp (to 0.75%), but reiterated that the tightening cycle will be gradual. We are sticking with our view that the policy rate will peak at 1.5% next year.

10 August 2022

Emerging Asia Data Response

Philippines GDP (Q2)

Economic growth in the Philippines unexpectedly slowed in Q2 and we expect growth to remain subdued in the second half of 2022 as high commodity prices, rising interest rates and weaker global demand drag on the economy.

9 August 2022

Emerging Asia Economics Update

How much does Taiwan matter?

Taiwan matters far more to the world economy than its 1% share of global GDP would A further escalation in cross-strait tensions that cut Taiwan’s export off from the rest of the world would lead to renewed shortages in the automotive and electronics sectors and put further upward pressure on inflation. In view of the wider interest, we are also sending this Emerging Asia Economics Update to clients of our Global Economics Service.  

8 August 2022

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Japan Data Response

Flash Manufacturing PMI (Jul.)

The second consecutive drop in the output index of the manufacturing PMI suggests that the sector is slowing. But the survey still points to faster increases in consumer prices.

24 July 2017

Japan Economics Weekly

The fiscal stimulus that wasn’t

A year has passed since Japan’s government announced a huge fiscal stimulus. We argued at the time that the announcement would be followed by only a negligible increase in public spending. In fact, spending has fallen slightly since the announcement. Now though, with PM Abe on the ropes politically, a shift towards fiscal loosening is becoming more likely.

21 July 2017

Japan Economics Update

Further reductions to Board’s inflation forecasts still needed

The Bank of Japan upgraded its assessment of the economy yet again at today’s meeting. But the Board’s inflation forecasts remain far too optimistic even after renewed downgrades. We reiterate our longstanding view that the Bank will not tighten policy anytime soon – a view that is increasingly shared by the analyst consensus.

20 July 2017
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