Korea Trade (July)

July data add to evidence that Korean exports are plateauing, after reaching very high levels. While we expect some softening ahead as final demand weakens a touch, a sharp pullback in exports is unlikely.    
Alex Holmes Emerging Asia Economist
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Emerging Asia Economics Weekly

Two non-consensus calls on monetary policy

There are four major monetary policy meetings scheduled in the region next week. While we expect the central banks of Indonesia and Taiwan to leave rates unchanged, we are pencilling in a hike by the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) and a cut by Bangko Sentral Philipinas (BSP).

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Falling foreign exchange reserves, a declining currency and a high level of foreign currency debt mean the risk of a sovereign default in Sri Lanka is growing. While the country should be able to muddle through for the next few months, it faces a crunch point early next year when more bond repayments are due. A default is now looking the most likely option.

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We’re holding a week of online events from 27th September to accompany our special research series. Event details and registration here.

10 September 2021

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Manufacturing PMIs (Aug.)

Falling output indices in Korea and Taiwan suggest that the virus disruption in South East Asia is reverberating across the region. The end of supply chain shortages continues to slip further out of sight.

1 September 2021

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South East Asia: hit from Delta will be slow to fade

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Bank of Korea to continue tightening into 2022

We were among the first forecasters to call that the Bank of Korea (BoK) would begin tightening monetary policy this year and it duly delivered today, raising the policy rate by 25bps to 0.75%. Given the hawkish comments in the press conference, we now think the next hike will come in November. And we expect the tightening cycle to continue well into 2022.

   

26 August 2021
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