Natural gas prices were the biggest mover in commodity markets this week, jumping higher on the back of news of potential industrial action at LNG plants in Australia. We don’t think gas prices in Europe are likely to return to their peaks of last year, but the market is clearly sensitive to supply outages. Meanwhile, industrial metals prices generally struggled on a weaker outlook for China’s economy and gold prices fell as the US dollar strengthened.
Next week, China’s industrial production and retail sales for July, released on Tuesday, should show domestic activity is subdued. If it is, expectations of further stimulus are only likely to grow, possibly supporting metals prices. We expect that growth in China’s refinery output may have slowed m/m but that it will remain historically high, supporting crude oil prices.
Become a client to read more
This is premium content that requires an active Capital Economics subscription to view.
Already have an account?
You may already have access to this premium content as part of a paid subscription.
Sign in to read the content in full or get details of how you can access it
Register for free
Sign up for a free account to gain:
- Unlock additional content
- Register for Capital Economics events
- Receive email updates and economist-curated newsletters
- Request a free trial of our services