China Trade (Nov.)

Exports and imports beat expectations last month thanks to stronger demand and easing semiconductor shortages. In the near-term, the emergence of the Omicron variant is likely to support demand for China’s exports. But its impact further ahead is still uncertain. Meanwhile, we doubt the latest uptick in imports is the start of a sustained rebound given that property construction looks set to weaken further.
Julian Evans-Pritchard Senior China Economist
Continue reading

More from China

China Activity Monitor

Starting 2022 on the back foot

Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that China’s economy was still struggling to regain momentum at the end of last year amid troubles in the property sector and recurrent COVID outbreaks which continue to depress service sector activity. We think these headwinds will continue to hold back activity during the first half of this year.

24 January 2022

China Economics Weekly

Some relief for property developers

This week’s cut to policy rates is one of a succession of recent moves designed to stabilize residential property sales. Developers have also been given a little more breathing room in terms of their access to financing. These steps may not feed into a recovery in project starts, given the poor structural outlook for property demand. But they improve the immediate outlook for many developers. Meanwhile, Tianjin’s Omicron outbreak appears to be under control and COVID cases nationally have dropped to a two-month low. That appears to be encouraging slightly more people to make the trip home for Lunar New Year than a year ago. We’ll be discussing our expectations for policy, zero-COVID and the economy on Thursday (08:00 GMT/16:00 HKT) in an online briefing timed to coincide with publication of our next Outlook report. Please register here to join us and let us know in advance of any questions you’d like us to address.  

21 January 2022

China Economics Update

Deposit rates may be next PBOC target

Today’s reductions to both the one-year and five-year Loan Prime Rates (LPR) continue the PBOC’s efforts to push down borrowing costs. We expect additional easing to follow in the coming months, including measures to push down deposit rates. But policymakers still appear reluctant to engineer a sharp pick-up in credit growth.

20 January 2022

More from Julian Evans-Pritchard

China Economics Update

RRR cut today, rate cuts tomorrow?

The People’s Bank (PBOC) has just announced a cut to the required reserve ratio (RRR) for most banks, shortly after Premier Li and the Politburo each separately hinted at an increase in policy support. There is already evidence of fiscal easing, and we expect policy rate cuts from the PBOC before long. That said, there still appears to be little appetite at the central bank for a sharp rebound in credit growth, and we’re seeing an opening of the fiscal taps, not a flood. This easing will cushion but not stop growth from slowing. Drop-In: China trade and the commodities demand outlook 08:00 GMT/16:00 HKT, Tuesday 7th December https://event.on24.com/wcc/r/3546145/A9D34EF592141BEFCAC819ADB40359D5?partnerref=report  

6 December 2021

China Economics Weekly

Year-end policy bash to strike a more dovish tone

The upcoming Central Economic Work Conference in Beijing is likely to signal that policy is turning more supportive. But loosening will be measured, and growth over coming quarters will still slow.

3 December 2021

China Activity Monitor

Service sector recovery remains lacklustre

Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) shows that growth ticked up last month as energy shortages eased and the service sector continued to recover from virus disruptions over the summer. But the rebound remains lacklustre, with output still well below June’s peak. And while the outlook for home sales and exports has brightened in recent weeks, cooling construction activity still looks set to weigh on growth next year.

24 November 2021
↑ Back to top