Policy easing to begin soon

We expect economic growth in most countries in Asia to slow in the second half of 2024, as tighter fiscal policy, high interest rates and weaker global growth all weigh on demand. Inflation is back to target in most countries and likely to remain low, helped by a combination of below-trend economic growth and lower food price inflation. Central banks have recently started to sound more dovish, and we expect most to begin easing policy this year, starting with the Philippines in August. In most places, rate cuts will come sooner and be more aggressive than financial markets are currently pricing in.