Nigeria CPI (Mar. 2020)

The slight rise in Nigerian inflation in March, to 12.3% y/y, is unlikely to prevent policymakers from cutting their key rate in May to ease the country’s economic pain caused by the coronavirus.
Virag Forizs Emerging Markets Economist
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Africa Economics Weekly

‘BIG’ push in SA, FX distortions in Nigeria, tourism woes

Momentum behind proposals for a basic income grant (BIG) in South Africa appear to be building, suggesting that the authorities are leaning towards providing more fiscal support. Elsewhere, Nigeria’s unorthodox foreign exchange policy seems to be disrupting activity but the chances of policymakers reversing course are very low. Finally, a recent virus wave in the highly-vaccinated island nation of Mauritius has dampened its recovery prospects, but other tourism-dependent economies in Africa will probably fare even worse.

17 September 2021

Africa Economics Update

CBN maintains interest rates and disruptive FX rules

Policymakers in Nigeria kept their benchmark rate on hold at 11.50% at today’s MPC meeting and will probably continue to do so over 2021-23. And the central bank’s insistence on maintaining a strong currency using disruptive foreign exchange rules is likely to come at an increasingly high economic cost.

17 September 2021

Africa Economics Update

SA to struggle to get back on economic feet after July hit

South Africa’s hard activity data for July underscored the severe blow to the retail and manufacturing sectors from violent unrest and tighter virus restrictions. While much of the hit has probably unwound more recently, weak growth momentum increases the risk of a contraction in GDP over Q3 as a whole.

15 September 2021

More from Virag Forizs

Africa Economics Update

SA: mixed industry performance to converge to weakness

South African hard activity data for April painted a mixed picture about the rebound in the mining and manufacturing sectors. By and large, though, the economy is in for a slow and bumpy recovery.

10 June 2021

Africa Data Response

South Africa GDP (Q1)

South Africa’s economy weathered a second virus wave relatively well, but with cases rising again and other headwinds hanging over the outlook, the recent strength of the recovery is unlikely to last.

8 June 2021

Africa Economics Weekly

SA tightens virus curbs, Ghana surprises with rate cut

The recent tightening of containment measures to curb South Africa’s third virus wave will probably not be as damaging for the economy as earlier rounds of restrictions. Even so, the prospect of further waves and other headwinds will weigh on the recovery. Meanwhile in Ghana, policymakers delivered a surprise interest rate cut this week, but that is unlikely to be followed by further easing in Ghana or elsewhere in the region.

4 June 2021
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