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Housing Starts (Jul.)

Single-family starts edged back in July, although they but remain elevated compared to pre-COVID levels. Shortages in lots, labour and materials are weighing on builder confidence and housing starts. But falling material prices should enable builders to work through their large backlog of delayed projects, which will help starts average 1.15m annualised this year.
Sam Hall Assistant Property Economist
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US Housing Market Update

The anatomy of a housing market downturn

Measures of housing market activity and prices tend to follow a predictable sequence in downturns. In this Update we highlight the key US and UK variables that clients should follow to track the housing downturn and identify turning points. With most indicators already softening in both countries, it is just a matter of time before house prices fall. In view of the wider interest, we are also sending this US Housing Update to clients of our UK Housing Service.

24 June 2022

US Housing Market Data Response

New Home Sales (May)

New home sales rose in May, bucking widespread signs of a housing market slowdown. But given the volatility in the data we wouldn’t put too much weight on one month’s reading. After all, new home sales are not immune to higher financing costs and survey measures point to a fall in sales over the next couple of months. While a healthier inventory means the new home market will outperform existing sales, we still expect a fall in sales to around 630,000 annualised by end-2022.

24 June 2022

US Housing Market Data Response

Existing Home Sales (May)

Surging mortgage rates led to another fall in existing home sales in May to their lowest level since the height of the COVID-19 lockdowns two years ago. And with mortgage rates set to rise to 6.5% by early 2023, sales will see further declines. We expect they will bottom out at 4.8m annualised by the end of the year, which would represent a 23% drop from their end-21 level.

21 June 2022

More from Sam Hall

US Housing Market Data Response

Mortgage Applications (Jul.)

The recent decline in mortgage rates buoyed refinancing activity in July, but didn’t prevent another month of declining home purchase activity. While market conditions are tight, there are still plenty of households looking to buy, which is why we expect housing demand to stay close to its current level in H2 2021.

4 August 2021

US Housing Market Update

Increase in build-for-rent won’t derail SF rent growth

Surging demand for single-family homes has revived institutional investor interest in the single-family rental (SFR) market. With few homes available to buy, interest in build-for-rent (BFR) investment is growing. But given constraints in the home building sector and the small share of the market that institutional investors occupy, the impact on supply from the recent uptick in BFR development will be small. As a result, we expect market conditions to remain tight, supporting rental growth in the next year. Due to wider interest, this US Housing Update is also being sent to clients of our US Commercial Property Service

3 August 2021

US Commercial Property Data Response

RICS Commercial Market Survey (Q2)

Improvements in occupier demand boosted market sentiment in Q2. With over half of surveyors perceiving the property cycle to be in an upturn, prospects for H2 performance look solid. But while we share surveyors’ optimism about the industrial outlook, we think they are overly upbeat on offices.

29 July 2021
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