Existing Home Sales (Oct.)

Existing home sales eked out a small gain in October, slowing considerably from last month’s increase. With inventory at a record low, buyer sentiment in a pit and mortgage rates on the rise, we expect sales will fall back to around 5.7m annualised by mid-2022, before rising slowly to 5.75m by end-2023.
Sam Hall Assistant Property Economist
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US Housing Market Data Response

New Home Sales (Dec.)

New home sales had a strong end to the year, as the record low number of existing homes on the market drove the sale of homes which were still under construction. That lack of existing supply will continue to support new home sales even as overall demand cools on the back of rising mortgage interest rates. From 811,000 annualised at the end of 2021, we expect a rise in sales to around 840,000 by end-2022.

26 January 2022

US Housing Market Data Response

Case-Shiller/FHFA House Prices (Nov.)

Case-Shiller reported annual house price growth falling for the third consecutive month in November. And with rising mortgage rates set to stretch affordability to its worst since 2008, we expect annual house price growth to slow from 19% to around 3% by end-2022.

25 January 2022

US Housing Market Data Response

Existing Home Sales (Dec.)

Despite a 6% m/m fall in existing home sales in December, 2021 marked an impressive year for existing home sales, with sales 11% higher compared to 2020. But looking ahead, a backdrop of rising mortgage rates and a record-low inventory means that sales will drop back and average around 5.88m annualised this year, less than most other forecasters expect.

20 January 2022

More from Sam Hall

US Commercial Property Update

Structural changes weigh on offices more than retail

Google mobility data show a much fuller recovery in visitors returning to retail and recreation than to the workplace. This supports our view that structural changes will weigh on the office sector more than retail over the next few years, helping to make offices the worst performing sector in this period.

19 November 2021

US Commercial Property Data Response

Commercial Property Lending (Oct.)

Outstanding real estate debt increased for the fifth consecutive month in October, driven by positive net lending in both residential and commercial real estate (CRE) sectors. We think that this reflects the rapid rebound in investment activity and an easing in credit conditions.

12 November 2021

US Commercial Property Update

REITs hint at upside risk for industrial and apartments

REIT pricing appears consistent with our view that retail values are nearing a turning point while office values have a bit further to fall. But a strong recovery in industrial and apartment REITs means that there is some upside risk to our capital value growth forecasts for 2021 and early 2022 in those sectors.

4 November 2021
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