My subscription
...
Filters
My Subscription All Publications

Existing Home Sales (Oct.)

Existing home sales eked out a small gain in October, slowing considerably from last month’s increase. With inventory at a record low, buyer sentiment in a pit and mortgage rates on the rise, we expect sales will fall back to around 5.7m annualised by mid-2022, before rising slowly to 5.75m by end-2023.
Sam Hall Assistant Property Economist
Continue reading

More from US Housing

US Housing Market Update

Higher rates to prevent rise in homeownership

The odds are stacking up against first-time buyers (FTBs), an important demographic for homeownership. A very limited number of starter homes on the market, higher interest rates, tight credit conditions and a weak outlook for new home sales all point to the rise in the homeownership rate in recent years coming to an end.

5 August 2022

US Housing Market Data Response

Mortgage Applications (Jul.)

Both refinancing and home purchase activity continued to trend lower in July, with the latter down by around 30% since the start of the year. Against a backdrop of stretched affordability and record-low homebuyer sentiment, we expect home purchase applications will remain subdued in the second half of the year.

3 August 2022

US Housing Market Update

Tight supply limits threat from rising construction

The current surge in homes under construction has few parallels with the building boom that preceded the house price crash in the late 2000s. The build-up of homes under construction has largely been caused by delays in sourcing materials and labour, rather than overbuilding. Many of the uncompleted homes have already been sold and a tight market will help soak up the extra supply even as demand eases. We therefore think the threat from oversupply is small.

29 July 2022

More from Sam Hall

US Commercial Property Update

Structural changes weigh on offices more than retail

Google mobility data show a much fuller recovery in visitors returning to retail and recreation than to the workplace. This supports our view that structural changes will weigh on the office sector more than retail over the next few years, helping to make offices the worst performing sector in this period.

19 November 2021

US Commercial Property Data Response

Commercial Property Lending (Oct.)

Outstanding real estate debt increased for the fifth consecutive month in October, driven by positive net lending in both residential and commercial real estate (CRE) sectors. We think that this reflects the rapid rebound in investment activity and an easing in credit conditions.

12 November 2021

US Commercial Property Update

REITs hint at upside risk for industrial and apartments

REIT pricing appears consistent with our view that retail values are nearing a turning point while office values have a bit further to fall. But a strong recovery in industrial and apartment REITs means that there is some upside risk to our capital value growth forecasts for 2021 and early 2022 in those sectors.

4 November 2021
↑ Back to top