Millions of job losses coming

The March employment report is more or less irrelevant at this stage because we already know that millions of workers have been laid off since the survey was conducted earlier this month. For what it’s worth, we expect a 95,000 increase in non-farm payrolls, but the April report is on course to be by far the weakest ever.
Andrew Hunter Senior US Economist
Continue reading

More from US

US Economics Update

Labour market slack falling to generational lows

The rebound in the job openings rate close to a record high in October means that the number of unemployed Americans per job opening fell to its lowest level since the early 1950s. That underlines the tightness of labour market conditions and suggests recent rapid wage gains will continue.

8 December 2021

US Fed Watch

Fed pivot will take rates to more than 1.5% in 2023

In sharp contrast to the surprisingly dovish November meeting, we expect Fed officials will use their December meeting to lay the ground for markedly tighter policy in the years ahead. The characterisation of inflation as “transitory” will be retired from the policy statement and the pace of tapering will be stepped up, with asset purchases now set to end next spring, rather than summer. In response to the Fed’s hawkish shift, we are revising our interest rate forecasts markedly higher. Rather than waiting until 2023, we now expect the Fed to hike rates twice in 2022, followed by four hikes in 2023, in a tightening cycle that will take rates to more than 2% by mid-2024.

8 December 2021

US Data Response

International Trade (Oct.)

The 8.1% m/m surge in exports in October means that net trade is on course to add about 1% point to fourth-quarter GDP growth, which we think will be 6.5% annualised, and provides more evidence that global supply chain bottlenecks are easing.

7 December 2021

More from Andrew Hunter

US Data Response

Industrial Production (May)

The 0.8% m/m rise in industrial production in May, driven by a 0.9% gain in manufacturing output, suggests that some of the shortages holding back production in recent months could have eased. But manufacturing output is still slightly below its pre-pandemic peak and continues to lag well behind the earlier resurgence in goods demand.

15 June 2021

US Data Response

Consumer Prices (May)

The further jump in core CPI inflation to a 28-year high of 3.8% in May, from 3.0%, was again driven by the same handful of categories most directly affect by the lifting of virus restrictions. But there were also signs of emerging inflationary pressures in other sectors, including housing costs and restaurant prices, which suggests that not all the current upward pressure on inflation will prove transitory.

10 June 2021

US Fed Watch

Talking about talking about tapering

Fed officials may finally begin ‘talking about talking about’ tapering their asset purchases at next week’s FOMC meeting. But with recent data leaving the economy still some way from making “substantial further progress” towards the Fed’s full employment goal, we suspect that taper won’t begin until early next year.

9 June 2021
↑ Back to top