US Employment Report (Jun. 2025) & International Trade (May 2025)

The 147,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in June was reassuring after the fall in the ADP measure of employment reported yesterday. A deeper dive shows the strength was again concentrated in government and health care employment, reflecting the increasing narrowness of the labour market’s strength. Nevertheless, with the unemployment rate edging lower again, the report was better than expected and will give the more hawkish members of the FOMC reason to push back against expectations for imminent interest rate cuts.