New macro forecasts – Q2 GDP to fall at 40% pace

With the number of COVID-19 cases in the US skyrocketing and a rising share of the population under lockdown, we need to revise our macro forecasts quite significantly: We now expect second-quarter real GDP to fall at a 40% annualised pace, with employment declining by 14 million and the unemployment rate spiking to 12%.
Paul Ashworth Chief North America Economist
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