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All-property returns to fall to zero next year as values slide

The dramatic shift in the interest rate environment over the first half of the year means that we have brought forward (and increased) our forecasts for yield rises. Property valuations now look as bad as they did in 2007, and with the 10-Year Treasury yield moving toward 4% by year-end, something has to give. We now expect property yields to climb by a cumulative 40-50 bps over the next few years. This will hit all sectors, although the elevated level of retail yields at present may spare them the worst, particularly in terms of the impact on capital values. All-property returns are still forecast to be 8% this year, but they will then drop to 0% next year and just 2.5% in 2024. We are still forecasting industrial returns of 18% this year. But beyond that the sector will be a major drag on returns in 2023-24, meaning it would go from hero to zero in the space of a year.
Kiran Raichura Senior Property Economist
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