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Autumn Budget 2021 Checklist

We are resending this Budget Checklist so clients can have it to hand ahead of today’s Budget. It is designed to help clients keep track of the key economic and public finances forecasts announced during the Chancellor’s Budget speech at 12.30pm and to provide some instant context. After the speech we will send clients our initial thoughts in a written Rapid Response and our more detailed analysis in an Economics Focus later this afternoon. We will also be recording a podcast with Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing about the implications of the Budget, which we will send to you this afternoon. If you’d like Neil to answer a specific question, please send it in a reply to this email.
Ruth Gregory Senior UK Economist
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UK Economics Weekly

Inflation to rise further and linger longer than in the US and EZ

Not only did the surge in CPI inflation to 9.0% in April leave inflation in the UK above the rates in both the US and the euro-zone, but inflation in the UK will probably rise further and stay higher for longer. That feeds into our forecast that the Bank of England will have to raise rates further than it expects, from 1.00% now to 3.00%. ECB Drop-In (24th May 10:00 ET/15:00 BST): Could the ECB deliver a hawkish surprise? Join economists from our Europe and Markets teams for a discussion about what to expect from the Bank’s tightening cycle, including the chances for a bumper hike in July or even an early move at next month’s meeting. Register now.

20 May 2022

UK Data Response

Retail Sales (Apr.)

The unexpectedly strong rise in retail sales in April suggests the cost of living crisis hasn’t caused consumer spending to collapse and means the economy may have a little more momentum than we previously thought. It also supports our view that a weaker economy on its own won’t solve the issue of sky-high inflation and that the Bank of England will have to raise interest rates further from 1.00% to 3.00%. ECB Drop-In (24th May 10:00 ET/15:00 BST): Could the ECB deliver a hawkish surprise? Join economists from our Europe and Markets teams for a discussion about what to expect from the Bank’s tightening cycle, including the chances for a bumper hike in July or even an early move at next month’s meeting. Register now.

20 May 2022

UK Economics Update

Weak confidence doesn’t make spending crash inevitable

The recent collapse in consumer confidence to a near-record low has added to the probability that the UK experiences a recession this year. But households’ large stock of savings and the tightness in the labour market means that weak confidence may not weigh on consumer spending as much as in the past.

19 May 2022

More from Ruth Gregory

UK Economics Update

Spring Fiscal Statement 2022 Checklist

This checklist helps clients keep track of the key economic and public finances forecasts announced during the Chancellor’s Spring Statement speech at 12.30pm on Wednesday 23rd March and to provide some instant context. We will send clients a Rapid Response immediately after the speech and a more detailed Focus later in the day. Economic & Fiscal Forecasts GDP Growth (%)…

21 March 2022

UK Economics Focus

Spring Fiscal Statement 2022 – Preview

The Chancellor, Rishi Sunak, will use his Spring Statement on 23rd March to soften the blow for households facing rising energy and food costs. However, any hopes that he will announce a big handout may be disappointed as he tries to strike a balance between the near-term political benefits of supporting households now and the medium-term political benefits of fiscal restraint that will allow him to loosen the purse strings ahead of the May 2024 general election. Bank of England Drop-In (17 March, 09:30 EST/14:30 GMT): The MPC has a tricky decision to make at its March meeting. Join Paul Dales and Ruth Gregory for a discussion about the outcome and the path ahead for UK growth, inflation and policymaking. Register here.

16 March 2022

UK Economics Weekly

Chancellor unlikely to help households as much as some hope

Those expecting the Chancellor to unveil a big fiscal support package to shelter households from even higher energy costs in his Spring statement on 23rd March may be sorely disappointed. Our best guess is that the Spring statement will contain a package of no more than £10bn in 2022/23 (1.0% of GDP). We’ve incorporated that in our GDP growth forecasts, which we have revised down this week to reflect the extra drag on activity from even higher inflation.

11 March 2022
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