UK Commercial Property

IPF Consensus Forecasts (Aug.)

The upgrades to the IPF Consensus views for this year still leaves them below our forecast. However, our more downbeat view on the outlook for offices because of the shift to more remote working means that we expect weaker total returns beyond 2022.
Amy Wood Property Economist
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UK Commercial Property Data Response

IPF Consensus Forecasts (Nov.)

The resilience of the commercial property market has led to further upgrades to the IPF Consensus view for this year, albeit still below our forecast. Beyond this year, we are more downbeat about the outlook than the consensus given our expectation that work-from-home will have a more lasting impact on offices.

26 November 2021

UK Commercial Property Update

Are flexible offices making a comeback?

Over the last two years, serviced offices have seen more upheaval than most other real estate sectors. But there have been some encouraging signs over recent quarters and long-term trends may have moved in their favour, though we don’t expect improved fortunes for flex space will be enough to change the outlook for offices as a whole.

25 November 2021

UK Commercial Property Outlook

Recovery to continue, but at a slower pace

The economic recovery has stalled and the near-term outlook is softer. Meanwhile, higher inflation is expected to bring interest rate hikes as early as December 2021, though we think that the pace of tightening will be fairly gradual. The post-COVID-19 property recovery has strengthened further across all sectors. But the rental outlook remains fragile, while we expect less assistance from falling yields after this year. As a result, we are close to the peak of capital value growth and performance will be much more subdued over 2022-25. Within this, industrial remains the standout, while London offices have the weakest returns.

19 November 2021

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European Commercial Property Update

Spanish retail rents to rebound from next year

We expect a recovery in domestic and foreign spending along with online penetration rates below most other euro-zone markets to support moderate growth in Spanish prime retail rents over the 2022-25 period, though this is not enough to reverse the decline during 2020-21.

31 August 2021

European Commercial Property Update

Retail yield stabilisation not a sign of a turning point

Following larger-than-expected falls in Q2 and positive near-term developments, we expect prime office and industrial yields to end the year lower than previously forecast. However, we think prime retail yields will trend upwards again as the impact of e-commerce has not yet been fully priced in.

11 August 2021

European Commercial Property Update

Longer-term prospects poor for Italian offices

With demand slowly recovering and supply being pushed back, we no longer expect prime office rental falls in the Italian markets this year. However, the outlook is less encouraging, with a slowdown in office-based employment growth, more remote working and higher supply expected to weigh on rents.

4 August 2021
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