Risk appetite to support base metals prices for now

The prices of industrial metals continued to surge in December, capping off a strong 2020. However, we expect that prices will fall this year as growth in China’s demand slows on the back of the gradual withdrawal of fiscal stimulus and tighter lending restrictions on construction firms. Meanwhile, precious metals prices rose last month as the US dollar depreciated.
Samuel Burman Assistant Commodities Economist
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Industrial Metals Update

Green transition to help charge cobalt prices

Cobalt prices have soared in 2021 to almost double the 2020 average price of $31,726 per tonne. We expect the growth in EV production and issues around supply to continue to push prices higher in 2022.

2 December 2021

Metals Data Response

Global Steel Production (Oct.)

Global steel production contracted again in y/y terms in October, mainly owing to lower Chinese production. China’s output may rebound a little in the coming months as power rationing has come to an end, but weaker domestic demand will act as a disincentive.

23 November 2021

Metals Data Response

Global Aluminium Production (Oct.)

October’s IAI data suggest the easing of power restrictions in China has enabled greater utilisation rates at smelters, driving the global increase in output this month. We think that aluminium output will remain high over the rest of this year, incentivised by the high price. However, we expect that the slowing of the Chinese construction sector will weigh on demand and prices in 2022.

22 November 2021

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Energy Update

OPEC impasse: what next?

The failure of OPEC+ to agree to new production quotas has created considerable uncertainty about the group’s oil production going forward. In this Update, we lay out three possible scenarios for OPEC+ output in the coming months and what they would mean for oil prices.

6 July 2021

Energy Update

Rising production to take the sizzle out of Henry Hub

Strong industrial demand and constrained domestic supply will support US natural gas prices throughout the remainder of this year. However, we expect that the average price will fall in 2022 in large part because of higher production.

28 June 2021

Commodities Update

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Although we remain optimistic about the near-term demand outlook, we think that the price of US lumber will fall further in the coming months as domestic supply continues to revive.

23 June 2021
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