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Risk appetite to support base metals prices for now

The prices of industrial metals continued to surge in December, capping off a strong 2020. However, we expect that prices will fall this year as growth in China’s demand slows on the back of the gradual withdrawal of fiscal stimulus and tighter lending restrictions on construction firms. Meanwhile, precious metals prices rose last month as the US dollar depreciated.
Samuel Burman Assistant Commodities Economist
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Metals Data Response

Global Steel Production (Apr.)

Global steel production fell in y/y terms in April, as all major producers bar India recorded declines. High energy costs and soft demand for steel are both likely to persist for much of the remainder of this year, hindering any large upticks in production. In China, producers will also be under pressure to meet state emission targets.

24 May 2022

Metals Data Response

Global Aluminium Production (Apr.)

After a weak start to the year, it looks increasingly as though a rebound in China’s output will more than offset lower production in Russia and Europe so that global production will rise a touch this year. That said, supply in the world ex China will remain constrained, even assuming higher exports from China.

20 May 2022

Industrial Metals Update

Weaker demand to enable stocks to build

Exchange stocks of base metals have fallen so far this year as high power costs have choked the supply of refined metals. Yet, we expect stocks to build as a weaker economic outlook for key metal consuming regions will weigh on demand, and easing energy prices should enable supply to recover slightly.

13 May 2022

More from Samuel Burman

Energy Update

OPEC impasse: what next?

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6 July 2021

Energy Update

Rising production to take the sizzle out of Henry Hub

Strong industrial demand and constrained domestic supply will support US natural gas prices throughout the remainder of this year. However, we expect that the average price will fall in 2022 in large part because of higher production.

28 June 2021

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23 June 2021
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