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How worried should we be about corporate scandals?

Recent scandals underline that Japan’s corporate governance practices are still poor. Investors often pay a heavy price as shown by the bankruptcy of Takata and the slump in Kobe Steel’s stock prices. However, we are not convinced that this constitutes a major impediment to the country’s growth prospects.
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Japan Data Response

Japan Industrial Production (May 2022)

The plunge in industrial output in May suggests that Japan’s recovery is disappointing yet again. The upshot is that it will take until the second half of the year for GDP to surpass its pre-virus level. Asia Drop-In (30th June, 09:00 BST/16:00 SGT): Are Asia’s central banks behind the curve? Can the Bank of Japan and People’s Bank of China continue to go against the grain? Find out in our special session on what global monetary tightening looks like in Asia. Register now.  

30 June 2022

Japan Data Response

Japan Retail Sales (May 2022)

The disappointing rise in retail sales in May poses downside risks to our upbeat forecasts for consumption growth in Q2. Asia Drop-In (30th June, 09:00 BST/16:00 SGT): Are Asia’s central banks behind the curve? Can the Bank of Japan and People’s Bank of China continue to go against the grain? Find out in our special session on what global monetary tightening looks like in Asia. Register now.  

29 June 2022

Japan Economics Weekly

Respite for BoJ doesn’t weaken case for a policy tweak

Pressure on the Bank of Japan’s Yield Curve Control framework eased this week. On the campaign trail for the Upper House election, where inflation has emerged as a key concern, Prime Minister Kishida said that monetary tightening would do more harm than good. Even more welcome for the BoJ, pressure emanating from the bond market has dropped back too. It had to buy less than a tenth as many JGBs this week as last. Some might feel that this reduces the need to shore up the policy framework. But a respite provides a window in which to make it more resilient.
Asia Drop-In (30th June, 09:00 BST/16:00 SGT): Are Asia’s central banks behind the curve? Can the Bank of Japan and People’s Bank of China continue to go against the grain? Find out in our special session on what global monetary tightening looks like in Asia. Register now.  

24 June 2022

More from Capital Economics Economist

Emerging Europe Economics Update

What should we make of Russia’s data revisions?

The upwards revisions to Russia’s industrial production figures have raised concerns about the quality of the data but, based on the figures released so far, the new series does seem to reflect economic conditions more accurately than the older series.

29 June 2018

Middle East Economics Update

Egypt rates on hold, easing cycle to resume in September

The Egyptian central bank’s decision to leave interest rates on hold (rather than lower rates) was a response to recently-announced subsidy cuts that will push up inflation. But the easing cycle is likely to resume at September’s MPC meeting. And we still think interest rates will, ultimately, be lowered by more than most analysts expect over the next couple of years.

28 June 2018

Energy Focus

Is the sun setting on the oil market?

Slowing economic growth and rapidly rising fuel efficiency, partly due to a surge in the number of electric vehicles, mean that growth in demand for oil will slow and eventually peak over the next twenty years. At the same time, plentiful oil reserves mean that supply should be ample. Indeed, the marginal cost of production is likely to fall as OPEC loses its pricing power and advances in shale technology force more expensive forms of production out of the market. As a result, we expect real oil prices to trend down over the next two decades.

28 June 2018
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