Japan Economics Weekly Industry starting to suffer from Middle East conflict Shortages of naphtha resulting from the conflict in the Middle East are evoking the image of severe disruptions in Japan’s manufacturing sector as happened during the pandemic. With some countries in... 20th March 2026 · 7 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Government cushioning blow from energy shock Japan’s government is capping gasoline prices at levels below last year’s average and is also releasing crude oil from stockpiles to prevent shortages. However, should crude oil prices rise much... 13th March 2026 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Middle East conflict lowers odds of near-term rate hike Japan looks better placed than most Asian economies to weather the disruption to energy supply caused by the conflict in the Middle East. However, a slowdown in economic activity in other countries in... 6th March 2026 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Case for near-term rate hike strengthening While the escalating tensions between China and Japan will provide a small drag on output this quarter, the January activity data were encouraging and suggest that GDP growth will pick up this quarter... 27th February 2026 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Looser fiscal policy has yet to manifest itself The large supplementary budget passed in November provided no discernible boost to public spending last quarter, which supports our long-held view that the government only recorded a minuscule budget... 20th February 2026 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Stronger yen won’t be a big drag on inflation Despite widespread concerns that a resounding victory for the ruling coalition in Sunday’s Lower House elections would trigger a further sell-off in JGBs and the yen, the exchange rate in fact... 13th February 2026 · 6 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly BoJ will hike rates again in June The recent turmoil in Japan’s bond market seems to have prompted some soul-searching among policymakers in Tokyo and we remain convinced that a decisive LDP victory in the upcoming Lower House... 6th February 2026 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly An LDP majority will not be fiscally profligate New polling suggests that the ruling Liberal Democratic Party is on track to secure an outright majority in the lower house following elections on February 8th. Although there have been concerns in... 30th January 2026 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly BoJ reluctant to cap government bond yields The Bank of Japan unveiled today that it had discussed tweaking the planned reduction in its bond purchase plan in response to the huge sell-off triggered by PM Takaichi’s campaign pledge to suspend... 23rd January 2026 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Hawkish BoJ may lift JGB yields even further We aren’t convinced that the continued rise in long-term bond yields coupled with the further weakening of the yen signals a loss of confidence in Japanese assets. But if the BoJ signals a more... 16th January 2026 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly China export ban more bark than bite The simmering tensions between Japan and China escalated further this week as China announced an export ban on “dual-use” goods that could be used for military purposes. To be sure, China will only... 9th January 2026 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly BoJ flags further hikes, Sino-Japan rift hits tourism With the outcome of today’s meeting no great surprise, the Bank of Japan used it to lock in expectations that further policy rate increases will follow. One potential obstacle is an imminent fall in... 19th December 2025 · 6 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Economy bigger than thought and poised to rebound Rebased national accounts data released this week show that Japan’s nominal GDP is around 5% higher than previously estimated, which in turn implies that the ratio of public debt to GDP is lower. This... 12th December 2025 · 6 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly 10-year JGB yield set to reach 30-year high In the wake of the BoJ signaling a rate hike at its December meeting, the 10-year JGB yield has approached 2% and we think it will climb to a 30-year high of 2.5% over the next couple of years. We... 5th December 2025 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Bank of Japan opening the door to December rate hike Recent communication from the Bank of Japan has left the door open to a rate hike in December. However, it’s not clear whether the Bank has already gathered sufficient information on the likely... 28th November 2025 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly 10-year JGB yield will reach 2% next year The government indicated this week that it will loosen fiscal policy by around 1% of GDP in the upcoming supplementary budget. Coupled with PM Takaichi giving BoJ Governor Ueda a free hand on when to... 21st November 2025 · 5 mins read
