Japan Economics Weekly LDP to choose a new leader, growth remains healthy PM Ishiba's successor will have to grapple with a politically-challenging environment when they take office early next month. But on the plus side, they will inherit a fairly resilient economy that... 12th September 2025 · 6 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Japan will be able to cope with higher bond yields While the yield on 30-year Japanese Government Bonds hit a fresh multi-year high this week, this doesn’t pose a near-term threat to the sustainability of Japan’s public finances. After all, shorter... 5th September 2025 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Tight labour market will prompt further BoJ tightening There are signs that the economy is losing momentum in response to US tariffs. However, with the labour market still extremely tight and inflation running well above the Bank of Japan’s 2% target, we... 29th August 2025 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Japan Weekly: External headwinds still not doing much damage There are mounting signs that higher US tariffs are starting to weigh on exports. However, with business investment holding up and inflation still strong, the financial markets are coming around to... 22nd August 2025 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Japan Weekly: BoJ will welcome resilience of Japan’s economy While faster productivity growth makes it easier for firms to absorb stronger wage growth, the Bank of Japan will welcome the resilience of consumer spending and business investment since Liberation... 15th August 2025 · 6 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Japan Weekly: Weaker bonus growth won’t prevent further rate hikes Sluggish consumption and slower wage growth may convince the Bank of Japan to keep policy settings unchanged for longer. But amidst few signs that trade tensions have weighed on corporate profits so... 8th August 2025 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Japan Weekly: Trade tensions unlikely to reduce wage growth much While the Bank of Japan became more upbeat about the outlook for inflation this week, it still thinks that trade tensions will result in a slower wage growth via lower corporate profits. However, with... 1st August 2025 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Japan Weekly: Trade deal strengthens case for further BoJ tightening Japan managed to secure a reduction in US vehicle tariffs with minimal concessions of its own. While that could eventually prompt Trump to renege on his promises, as things stand the trade deal has... 25th July 2025 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Japan Weekly: BoJ can’t shrug off strong inflation for much longer The resilience of exports and the strength in inflation leave the case for tighter monetary policy intact. Nonetheless, with trade negotiations between the US and Japan seemingly at a dead end, the... 18th July 2025 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Japan Weekly: Stalling trade negotiations may delay BoJ rate hikes We still expect a trade deal with the US to be agree upon after the Upper House elections on 20 th July. However, given that very few countries have managed to reach an agreement so far, the... 11th July 2025 · 6 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Japan Weekly: Trade negotiations go down to the wire The temporary pause on the 24% “reciprocal” tariff Trump imposed on imports from Japan in April is due to expire next week. As things stand, a deal with Japan looks unlikely and it’s possible that... 4th July 2025 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Japan Weekly: LDP set to defend majority in Upper House Even though the LDP suffered a crushing defeat in Tokyo’s metropolitan election over the weekend, it looks increasingly likely that the government will be able to defend its majority in next month’s... 27th June 2025 · 6 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Japan Weekly - No signs that trade tensions are weighing on inflation The Bank of Japan retained its downbeat outlook at this week’s meeting. But with the economic data holding up despite trade tensions and inflation set to overshoot the Board’s forecasts by a sizeable... 20th June 2025 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Japan Weekly: BOJ will still see inflation risks tilting higher The Bank of Japan meets next week with domestic data mixed and trade headwinds significant. It won’t consider hiking this time, but we don’t think – as many now do – that the Bank won’t move again... 13th June 2025 · 7 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Consumers still spending, births falling Japanese households are doing better than had seemed to be the case, with data this week giving upbeat signals on both wages and consumer spending. They are not, however, having babies: fifty years... 6th June 2025 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly BoJ’s pessimism is facing reality check Firms’ output forecasts suggest that Japanese exporters are benefitting from US demand shifting away from China. And with inflation running miles ahead of the Bank of Japan’s overly pessimistic... 30th May 2025 · 5 mins read
