India's wheat exports have soared recently and stand to benefit further from the shock to global supply caused by the war in Ukraine. But the consequences for India's external position will be small relative to the huge impact of higher oil, coal and gas prices. Those higher oil prices are likely to have a knock-on effect on domestic fuel prices soon, which would push inflation even further above the RBI's tolerance range. Meanwhile, we expect the end of the loan moratorium to dampen prospects for investment over the coming years.
Long Run Outlook Drop-In (23 March, 11:00 EDT/15:00 GMT): What will be the lasting impacts of the war in Ukraine? What legacies will the pandemic leave? What does a future of higher inflation mean for economies and markets? Neil Shearing hosts this special discussion with senior economists about the long-term investing outlook on Wednesday. Register here.
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