India Economics Weekly India Weekly: India caught in the US-Russia crossfire The extra 25% US tariff on India for its continued economic ties with Russia, on top of the 25% tariff that took effect this week, would significantly dent India’s appeal as an alternative to China... 8th August 2025 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly India Weekly: Trump's tariffs on India come with a Russian edge India will be hit by a 25% US tariff and that rate could climb higher depending on the nature of the as-yet-unspecified penalty due to its economic ties to Russia. But with trade talks between the US... 1st August 2025 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly India Weekly: Security concerns with China still trump all else President Trump’s tariff threats and public efforts to improve relations with Pakistan has fuelled increased commentary around whether India should attempt to improve its own relations with China as... 25th July 2025 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly India Weekly: India hoping to seal a better US trade deal than Asian peers President Trump's comments this week that a trade deal with India is "close" but that it may be along the "same line" as the one announced with Indonesia on Wednesday raises the prospect that India... 18th July 2025 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly India Weekly: Falling inflation, trade uncertainty, equity underperformance June inflation data, due next week, is set to show headline inflation dropping to 2.6% y/y — the lowest in over six years — driven by tumbling food prices. Despite this, the RBI is unlikely to respond... 11th July 2025 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly India Weekly: Hopes grow over strong monsoon and US trade deal The southwest monsoon has fully covered India, around a week earlier than the historic norm. This raises the prospect of a bountiful kharif harvest, which bodes well for economic prospects in the... 4th July 2025 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly India Weekly: Mixed messaging on India-US trade deal prospects President Trump's talking up of the prospects of a "very big" trade deal between India and the US this week are at odds with recent reports which suggest that India's politically sensitive... 27th June 2025 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly India Weekly: Tariff front-running fades, record deficit with China The goods trade data for May released this week suggest that tariff front-running has faded. But exports to the US remain strong, in what could be a sign of US buyers switching to alternative... 20th June 2025 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly India Weekly: Q3 Outlook, inflation, defence spending Headline inflation in India has dropped to a more-than-six-year low and, while higher oil prices are an upside risk following Israel's air strikes on Iran, there are reasons to think inflation will... 13th June 2025 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly India Weekly: Equity outperformance to fade, RBI’s bumper rate cut Despite the bright near-term economic outlook for India, we suspect Indian equities’ recent strong run will prove short-lived. Meanwhile, we think that the RBI's easing cycle is now over following its... 6th June 2025 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly India Weekly: New GDP forecasts, long-run rankings, RBI preview In light of the strong Q1 data, we've revised up our GDP growth forecast for India for 2025. Into next week, with inflation at a multi-year low, the RBI looks set to continue its easing cycle. 30th May 2025 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly India Weekly: Windfall for the Finance Ministry, flash PMIs, Q1 GDP The RBI's bumper dividend transfer announced today gives the Finance Ministry a bit of breathing room as spending pressure mounts. Next week, we expect to learn that the economy maintained a... 23rd May 2025 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly India Weekly: Not such a hurry after all While Donald Trump still sounds bullish on the chances of a trade deal with India, India’s government has signalled this week that the US will have to give some ground too. Meanwhile, although tariffs... 16th May 2025 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly India Weekly: Missile strikes and trade deals Rising tensions in Kashmir are not a major threat to India's economy, but if China were to step in and provide support to Pakistan, it would surely put a major dent in the improvement in Sino-Indian... 9th May 2025 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly India Weekly: Exporters could fill some of China's void India looks relatively well-positioned to be an alternative to China as a supplier of goods to the US in the immediate term. And India also stands out as likely to benefit over the long term – the... 2nd May 2025 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly India Weekly: JD Vance in India, Kashmir, flash PMIs, dovish RBI US Vice President JD Vance was in India this week talking up progress on a potential trade deal as well as hailing the strength of diplomatic relations between the two countries. Meanwhile, India’s... 25th April 2025 · 4 mins read
