India Economics Weekly Oil and current account risks, RBI preview If oil prices were to spike considerably higher as a result of the escalating conflict in the Middle East it would expose an age-old vulnerability in India's external position. But we think the risks... 4th October 2024 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly Make in India: 10 years on Though there have been pockets of success, PM Modi's flagship "Make in India" policy initiative - launched 10 years ago this week - has done little to improve the global competitiveness of India's... 27th September 2024 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly Fed easing, Q4 Outlook, Sensex surge The start of the Fed's easing cycle won't automatically cause the RBI to follow suit; we still think it will keep rates on hold in its next meeting in October. But the right domestic conditions will... 20th September 2024 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly Courting China, commodities, consumer prices Signs of a further thawing in relations between India and China provide more evidence of a growing theme of countries courting Chinese investment, not as a rejection of the potential benefits from US... 13th September 2024 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly Economy in midst of mild slowdown In light of the latest activity data, we’ve made slight downward revisions to our GDP growth forecasts for India – we now think the economy will grow by 6.5% in 2024 (our previous forecast was 7.0%)... 6th September 2024 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly MPC shake-up suggests no October rate cut Confirmation that the two most dovish members of the MPC will be stepping down before the RBI's next policy meeting in October strengthens our view that the panel won't vote to cut rates in that... 30th August 2024 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly Debate over inflation target misses the point A longstanding debate in Indian policymaking circles over which measure of consumer price inflation - headline or core - the RBI should target has been reignited in recent weeks. But the more... 23rd August 2024 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly SEBI in Hindenburg’s crosshairs, Sino-Indian relations The Adani Group/Hindenburg Research saga took a new twist this week as the US short-seller alleged that India's markets regulator, SEBI, had a major conflict of interests in investigating the... 16th August 2024 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly Questions for the RBI in the rupee’s decline The rupee was one of only a few currencies to weaken against the dollar this week. Could a lack of investor confidence in the currency pose problems in the months ahead for the RBI? 9th August 2024 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly RBI’s bond restrictions, policy meeting preview The RBI's surprise move this week to restrict foreign access in some long-dated sovereign bonds highlights the bumpy path for foreign investors as policymakers balance a push for more overseas... 2nd August 2024 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly Modi gets the memo on employment The FY24/25 Union Budget this week showed a shift in the government's focus towards improving employment, likely in response to the BJP's underwhelming performance in the general election. While a... 26th July 2024 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly What to watch for in the Union Budget The full Union Budget for FY24/25 - which will be unveiled on Tuesday - will provide an important indication of how much the BJP is willing to concede to its coalition partners. It will also give an... 19th July 2024 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly Budget and geopolitics in focus The full Budget for FY24/25 - which will be unveiled on 23rd July - will provide an important indication of how much the BJP is willing to concede to its coalition partners. Meanwhile, developments... 12th July 2024 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Modi in Moscow: old friends, new context Prime Minister Modi’s trip to Moscow next week will irk the West, but it should be read as a sign of India seeking to reap economic gains from its non-aligned status rather than an effort to position... 5th July 2024 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Unpacking the further slump in FDI The further slump in net foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows into India in Q1 seems in large part a reflection of higher global interest rates. One implication therefore is that the slump will... 28th June 2024 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly Bond index ambitions realised, Q3 Outlook India's government will achieve a long-held policy objective next week when JPMorgan adds the country's local bonds to its largest EM sovereign bond index. While an important milestone, we expect the... 21st June 2024 · 3 mins read
