India Economics Weekly Debate over inflation target misses the point A longstanding debate in Indian policymaking circles over which measure of consumer price inflation - headline or core - the RBI should target has been reignited in recent weeks. But the more... 23rd August 2024 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly SEBI in Hindenburg’s crosshairs, Sino-Indian relations The Adani Group/Hindenburg Research saga took a new twist this week as the US short-seller alleged that India's markets regulator, SEBI, had a major conflict of interests in investigating the... 16th August 2024 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly Questions for the RBI in the rupee’s decline The rupee was one of only a few currencies to weaken against the dollar this week. Could a lack of investor confidence in the currency pose problems in the months ahead for the RBI? 9th August 2024 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly RBI’s bond restrictions, policy meeting preview The RBI's surprise move this week to restrict foreign access in some long-dated sovereign bonds highlights the bumpy path for foreign investors as policymakers balance a push for more overseas... 2nd August 2024 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly Modi gets the memo on employment The FY24/25 Union Budget this week showed a shift in the government's focus towards improving employment, likely in response to the BJP's underwhelming performance in the general election. While a... 26th July 2024 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly What to watch for in the Union Budget The full Union Budget for FY24/25 - which will be unveiled on Tuesday - will provide an important indication of how much the BJP is willing to concede to its coalition partners. It will also give an... 19th July 2024 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly Budget and geopolitics in focus The full Budget for FY24/25 - which will be unveiled on 23rd July - will provide an important indication of how much the BJP is willing to concede to its coalition partners. Meanwhile, developments... 12th July 2024 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Modi in Moscow: old friends, new context Prime Minister Modi’s trip to Moscow next week will irk the West, but it should be read as a sign of India seeking to reap economic gains from its non-aligned status rather than an effort to position... 5th July 2024 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Unpacking the further slump in FDI The further slump in net foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows into India in Q1 seems in large part a reflection of higher global interest rates. One implication therefore is that the slump will... 28th June 2024 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly Bond index ambitions realised, Q3 Outlook India's government will achieve a long-held policy objective next week when JPMorgan adds the country's local bonds to its largest EM sovereign bond index. While an important milestone, we expect the... 21st June 2024 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly New government, same faces The minimal personnel changes in PM Modi’s new cabinet suggests the new government’s policy direction will be similar to before. Admittedly, concessions on spending may have to be made to appease the... 14th June 2024 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly Dust settling on election, MPC pendulum swinging Indian equities have ended an extraordinary week higher than where they began, which we think partly reflects the fact that investors have realised that a coalition government is not a terminal blow... 7th June 2024 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly What to watch for in a momentous week India's general election is coming to an end and from a macro perspective the key thing for investors to watch for is whether it delivers a government that has a working parliamentary majority that... 31st May 2024 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Is PM Modi on the backfoot? As India’s mammoth general election enters its final week, a narrative that has unfolded in the international media is a waning of popular support for Prime Minister Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP... 24th May 2024 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly Apple’s ambitions, Iran port deal, Russian oil The government's announcement this week of a long-term contract to develop and operate a port in Iran through which India will be able to transport goods into Central Asia is an illustration of how... 17th May 2024 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly Why we still think rate cuts will commence in Q3 The consensus is now expecting the RBI to begin its easing cycle in Q4. But the inflation outlook, as well as recent measures to ease liquidity constraints, suggest to us that a policy pivot will... 10th May 2024 · 4 mins read
