India Economics Weekly Why the Gujarat election matters for investors State elections in India matter for economic policy but next week’s vote in Gujarat arguably holds more significance than most others. It is the manufacturing powerhouse of the country and, linked to... 25th November 2022 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Signs of domestic demand softening There are signs in the latest data that domestic demand is softening, though not to the extent that it should raise alarm at the central bank. This reinforces our view that the tightening cycle still... 18th November 2022 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly Coal giving ground slowly to renewables India’s dependence on coal and its plans to increase coal-powered generating capacity have been talking points at COP27. In the recent past, this dependence has been an economic vulnerability as... 11th November 2022 · 6 mins read
India Economics Weekly Electronics exports are booming India’s exports of electronics remain small, but they have doubled in value over the past couple of years. This is further evidence of a shift into areas of manufacturing that have the potential to... 4th November 2022 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Don’t expect fireworks at “additional” MPC meeting Unlike previous "emergency" meetings in response to big financial market moves or inflation shocks, the "additional" MPC meeting announced for next week is a bureaucratic decision since the RBI is... 28th October 2022 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Rupee weakness is not a big macro concern The rupee has this week continued its slide against the US dollar, dropping to a record low of 83/$ on Thursday. As has been the case over the past few months, this has been the trigger for a series... 21st October 2022 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly A bigger slice of Apple pie Apple’s decision to shift some of its manufacturing into India – and out of China – is an example of how the global economy is “fracturing” into US- and China-aligned blocs: the topic of our 2022... 14th October 2022 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly Bond index snub will dent pride more than inflows The announcement this week that JP Morgan will not be including Indian local-currency bonds in its benchmark bond indices for the time being will hurt egos in the government, but it is unlikely to... 7th October 2022 · 7 mins read
India Economics Weekly Current account deficit to widen further India’s current account recorded its largest deficit in three years in Q2 and it will remain wide by recent standards over the coming quarters, which will keep the rupee on the back foot. Meanwhile... 30th September 2022 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly FX reserves remain more than adequate The drop in FX reserves to the lowest level in almost two years has raised concerns in some quarters that the RBI’s policy of FX intervention to slow the depreciation of the rupee is not sustainable... 23rd September 2022 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly Rupee channel could help Russian oil flow Indian imports from Russia have quadrupled since the outbreak of war in Ukraine, reflecting both higher energy prices and a surge in volumes. So long as Russia’s energy sector is not specifically... 16th September 2022 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly Bond index inclusion, rupee settlement mechanism If media reports are to be believed, Indian local-currency bonds are on the cusp of being included in major bond indices for the first time. That could lead to a pick up in foreign inflows, but... 9th September 2022 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly GDP oddities, a long-term view of the rupee We’ve revised down our GDP growth forecast for 2022 following the weaker-than-expected data for Q2. But with policymakers appearing comfortable with the health of the economy, we aren’t inclined to... 2nd September 2022 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly Surging capital inflows unlikely to be sustained Foreigners’ net purchases of Indian equities have surged to near record levels in recent weeks, helping to fuel the strong rally in the Sensex. We doubt that this can be sustained as global policy... 26th August 2022 · 7 mins read
India Economics Weekly Inflation to fall back only gradually We now expect CPI inflation to fall back to the 6% ceiling of the RBI's target range by the end of the year as food and energy inflation drags the headline rate lower. But beyond that, we still expect... 19th August 2022 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly Political wranglings weaken BJP’s hand For all its power in parliament’s lower house (Lok Sabha), a majority in the upper house (Rajya Sabha) has remained elusive for PM Modi’s BJP. As the main party in the National Democratic Alliance... 12th August 2022 · 6 mins read
