High valuations may hold back risky assets

While we don’t think that risky assets are in a systemic bubble, we suspect there is limited scope for further large increases in valuations to drive their prices higher over the next few years.
Continue reading

More from Global Markets

EM Markets Chart Book

We think China’s equities will continue to struggle

Even if the current concerns around Evergrande abate, we think China’s stock market will continue to underperform many of those elsewhere over the next couple of years.

Drop-In: Evergrande – What are the risks to China and the world? Chief Asia Economist Mark Williams and Senior China Economist Julian Evans-Pritchard will be joined by Senior Markets Economist Oliver Jones to take your questions about the Evergrande situation. They’ll be covering the implications of collapse for China’s financial system and growth outlook, and assessing the global markets fallout. Register here for the 0900 BST/1600 HKT session on Thursday, 23rd September.

22 September 2021

Global Markets Update

Inflation & the outlook for bonds in the US, UK & E-Z

While we expect the yields of long-dated sovereign bonds to increase further across developed markets over the next two years, we think they will rise by more in the US than in the euro-zone and the UK. This is based on our view that inflation will prove more persistent in the former than in the latter two.

17 September 2021

DM Markets Chart Book

Japan’s stock market may not go from strength to strength

We don’t expect the recent surge in Japan’s stock market to last, and think it will make much smaller gains over the next couple of years.

17 September 2021

More from Global Markets Team

DM Markets Chart Book

We still expect higher yields & equity rotation in the US

The hawkish surprise delivered by the Fed at its latest meeting and the subsequent market reaction have not changed our view that the 10-year US Treasury yield will end the year higher and that the “rotation trade” in equity markets will resume before long.

24 June 2021

EM Markets Chart Book

Toning down our optimism about EM assets & currencies

We have become more pessimistic about the outlook for emerging market (EM) assets and currencies as we now expect the 10-year US Treasury yield to rise further over the next two years.

1 April 2021

DM Markets Chart Book

We forecast higher yields, a stronger $ & gains in equities

We now think that 10-year government bond yields in most developed markets (DMs) will rise further. However, we think that they will climb more rapidly in the US than elsewhere in the developed world. As such, we have revised up our forecast for the US dollar, and expect it to strengthen somewhat between now and end-2022. Nonetheless, we are sticking to our view that DM equities, including in the US, will generally make further ground as economies re-open and corporate earnings rebound.

31 March 2021
↑ Back to top