The global implications of a slowdown in China

The slowdown that we anticipate in China over the next 6-12 months is best viewed as a return to normality following a period of above-trend output. While it will be a headwind to growth in some industrial commodity producers, we do not think it will derail recoveries in the world’s major advanced economies.
Neil Shearing Group Chief Economist
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Global Economics Update

Has the pandemic permanently reduced the workforce?

The pandemic is still depressing the size of the labour force in many developed countries. This probably reflects a mixture of temporary and permanent factors, so some of it may yet be reversed. But even if the bulk of the reduction in the labour force persists, this does not alter the big picture that the overall lasting damage to economies’ supply capacity has been limited considering the scale of the downturn.

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14 October 2021

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Delta variant is a much bigger threat to EMs than DMs

The apparent success of vaccines at preventing severe illness and death from the Delta coronavirus variant should mean that it does not pose a major threat to recoveries in most advanced economies. However, the rapid spread of the Delta variant poses a more significant threat to recoveries in large parts of the emerging world, where vaccination rates are lower.

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The volatility caused by retail investors co-ordinated on the r/Wallstreetbets forum does not pose a direct threat to the global economy, but it does illustrate some of the financial vulnerabilities that can stem from ultra-loose monetary and fiscal policies. In this Update we answer four important questions about the events of the past week.

1 February 2021
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