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Can we trust the PMIs after their undue optimism in Q1?

The PMI surveys gave an overly optimistic steer of GDP growth in advanced economies in Q1. This partly reflected volatility in imports and inventories and the effects of COVID restrictions, all of which should fade from now on allowing the PMIs to give a more accurate steer. But since the headline PMIs do not cover the retail sector, they might continue to overstate actual GDP growth to some extent.
Ariane Curtis Global Economist
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