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Sky-high European gas prices unlikely to be sustained

We think a reversal of the factors that have fuelled the recent surge in European natural gas prices, namely high LNG prices, constrained supply and depleted stocks, will bring prices back down to earth by early 2022. However, a strong economic rebound and a high carbon prices should prevent the price of natural gas returning to its 2020 lows.
Adam Hoyes Assistant Economist
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Energy Data Response

US Weekly Petroleum Status Report

Commercial crude stocks fell last week as refineries raised production of petroleum products. However, refineries will probably struggle to raise output much further, with many of them operating near capacity. This, along with more strategic reserve releases, should put a floor under commercial crude stocks.

29 June 2022

Energy Update

Making sense of a price cap on Russian energy

The G7 proposal to impose a cap on the price of Russian oil and gas would introduce new supply-side risks by potentially disrupting Russian energy supplies. This could push global energy prices up further, but for now we still see Brent crude prices ending 2022 at $100 per barrel. The cap may also be effective at reducing the Russian government’s tax revenues. We don’t think a cap on the price of Urals crude would need to be too far below $80pb (from $90pb currently) to push Russia’s budget into a deficit. In view of the wider interest, we are also sending this Energy Update to clients of our Commodities Overview and Emerging Europe Services.  

28 June 2022

Energy Update

OPEC+ to change tack from September

Whilst OPEC+ has been failing to meet its production quotas in recent months, it will technically finish unwinding its pandemic-related supply cuts come September. We think OPEC+ will then move to a more liberal approach and allow the few members with spare capacity to produce more. This is one reason why we forecast that the Brent oil price will ease back to around $100 per barrel by year end. In view of the wider interest, we are also sending this Energy Update to clients of our Middle East and North Africa service.

23 June 2022

More from Adam Hoyes

Commodities Update

China’s industrial metals imports to weaken further

China’s imports of most industrial commodities continued to fall in June. We expect import volumes of near all commodities, but especially the industrial metals, to ease further in the months ahead as economic growth slows and activity in industry and construction cools.

13 July 2021

Precious Metals Update

We still think gold will lose its shine

After rallying from April onwards, the price of gold has dropped back in recent weeks. We expect the price of gold to fall further over the next couple of years as long-dated US real yields climb.

30 June 2021

Energy Data Response

US Weekly Petroleum Status Report

US commercial crude stocks declined again last week. However, with both implied demand for most products and refinery activity close to pre-pandemic levels, we think the pace of draws will stabilise.

23 June 2021
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