A closer look at the EM export boom

EM exports are set to hit a new high in Q2, which will help to support economic growth, particularly in East Asia where virus cases are hitting domestic economies. While EM exports are likely to come off their current highs, they will probably stay at elevated levels throughout the rest of the year.
William Jackson Chief Emerging Markets Economist
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Emerging Markets Economics Update

Current account risks building in Em. Europe & Lat Am

The shift to current account surpluses in Indonesia and South Africa suggest that these economies may be better placed to weather any fallout from rising US interest rates than in the past. But current account deficits have become an increasing cause for concern in parts of Emerging Europe (Hungary, Poland and Romania) and Latin America (Colombia and Chile). Drop-In: Join Chief Emerging Markets Economist William Jackson and Jason Tuvey, head of our Turkey coverage, shortly after this Thursday’s CBRT meeting for a discussion about Jason’s new report on economic policy-making in Turkey, the impact of the lira’s collapse and brewing macro risks this Thursday 20th January at 09:00 ET/14:00 GMT. Register here.

18 January 2022

Emerging Markets Economics Chart Book

Omicron sweeps across the emerging world

The Omicron variant of COVID-19 is causing new virus cases to surge in the emerging world. Many EMs are reporting record daily cases or that new infections are rising sharply. South Africa’s experience offers some hope – cases are now falling sharply there and it looks like the economic fallout was limited. Elsewhere, most EM governments are following South Africa’s playbook by imposing limited (if any) containment measures, although China is a key exception. And given weakness in testing capacity and large informal sectors in most EMs, workplace absenteeism is unlikely to be as economically disruptive as in DMs.

14 January 2022

Emerging Markets Economics Update

A look ahead to the key EM political events of 2022

In this Update, we take a look at the key political events that are scheduled across the emerging world over the coming year and outline their possible implications for economic policy and growth. Drop-In: Neil Shearing will host an online panel of our senior economists to answer your questions and update on macro and markets this Thursday, 13th January (11:00 ET/16:00 GMT). Register for the latest on everything from Omicron to the Fed to our key calls for 2022. Registration here.

13 January 2022

More from William Jackson

Latin America Data Response

Brazil & Chile Consumer Prices (Jun.)

The further rise in Brazilian inflation, to 8.3% y/y, means Copom will continue to hike when it meets next month. But the data are not quite enough to prompt a shift from 75bp hikes to a larger 100bp move. Meanwhile, with Chilean core inflation continuing to run above target and optimism about the economy growing, we now think the central bank will start its tightening cycle when it meets next week.

8 July 2021

Emerging Europe Data Response

Russia Consumer Prices (Jun.)

The further rise in Russian inflation to a stronger-than-expected 6.5% y/y in June means the central bank (CBR) is likely to up the pace of tightening when it meets in a couple of weeks. A 75bp hike (to 6.25%) seems most likely, but the probability of an even larger 100bp hike has risen.

7 July 2021

Emerging Markets Economics Update

EM credit growth: where do the risks lie?

With the (usual) exception of Turkey, the strong rates of credit growth seen in some EMs including Brazil and Korea are unlikely to be sustained as policymakers have already started (or will soon turn to) tightening policy. The bigger concern is the extreme weakness of credit growth in other EMs such as Mexico and the Philippines, which threatens to further hold back economic recoveries.

6 July 2021
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