“Grexit” and what it might mean for EMs

The impact on EMs of a Greek exit from the euro-zone would depend on the extent to which policymakers in Europe were able to limit the wider financial fallout. A “managed” exit would create significant problems for the handful of EMs with strong financial ties to Greece, notably Bulgaria and Romania, but beyond this the impact would probably be limited. In contrast, a more disorderly exit would risk wider dislocation in global markets that could engulf a larger group of EMs, including those with strong ties to European (ex-Greece) banks and those with large external financing needs.