EM industry holding up

The rise in the EM manufacturing PMI to a six-month high in September adds to our view that EM growth is stabilising, even as advanced economies continue to lose momentum.
Nikhil Sanghani Emerging Markets Economist
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Emerging Markets Economics Update

The Omicron variant and the threat to EMs

There’s a lot that we don’t know about the new Omicron variant. But if it proves more virulent, the economic fallout would probably be largest in EMs in parts of Africa and South and South East Asia that have lower vaccination rates, more limited fiscal space and/or larger tourism sectors. The new variant may also temper the pace of tightening cycles in parts of the emerging world. In view of the wider interest, we are also sending this Emerging Markets Economics Update to clients of all our Emerging Markets services.

29 November 2021

Emerging Markets Activity Monitor

EM recoveries enter a more difficult phase

Persistent supply shortages, fading reopening boosts and tighter financial conditions all pose headwinds to recoveries in Emerging Europe and Latin America over the coming quarters, while cooling construction activity looks set to weigh on growth in China. By contrast, the near-term outlook has brightened in South East Asia as economies emerge from lockdowns.

25 November 2021

Emerging Markets Economics Update

Headwinds build as financial conditions tighten

The sharp tightening of financial conditions in Latin America and Emerging Europe will add to headwinds facing both regions and feeds into our view that recoveries there are entering a slower phase. Financial conditions in Asia have tightened too, albeit to a much smaller extent. And with most central banks in the region in no rush to raise interest rates, conditions there will probably stay loose for some time yet.

24 November 2021

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Latin America Economics Update

Five key questions on Mexico’s midterm elections

Sunday’s midterm elections in Mexico are widely seen as a referendum on President López Obrador’s tenure, and a strong result for his coalition could embolden him to pursue more interventionist policies. This Update outlines five key questions (and answers) about the upcoming vote, including what to look out for and the implications for Mexico’s economy, the oil sector and financial markets.

2 June 2021

Latin America Economics Weekly

Banxico sets a high bar for hikes, new virus worries

The minutes to Banxico’s latest meeting revealed that Board members are becoming more wary about the outlook for inflation, but we think that there is a high bar for a tightening cycle to begin. Otherwise, new virus cases have once again resumed an upwards trend in the region which presents a risk to economic recoveries. One positive, though, is that vaccines appear to be helping to ease the burden on healthcare systems.

28 May 2021

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Unpacking the political risks in Chile

Chilean financial assets have been hit hard following the Constitutional Convention election, and this Update outlines three key political risks which could keep local markets under pressure over the coming quarters. These are likely to shape how Chile’s economy develops over the medium term, but we doubt that they will have a major bearing on the near-term economic outlook.

27 May 2021
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