Skip to main content

EM sovereign debt: where do the risks lie?

The strong dollar and spill-overs from the war in Ukraine have caused sovereign debt risks to escalate in some frontier markets. But most large EMs have far stronger public sector balance sheets, mitigating much of the risk of the “classic” emerging market sovereign debt crises that were prevalent in the 1980s and 1990s. Instead, it is local-currency debt risks that investors ought to pay attention to. While these tend to be more slow-burning in nature, there are reasons to be concerned about debt trajectories in Brazil and South Africa, while vulnerabilities are also increasing in Hungary, Poland and India. Note: We’ll be discussing key takeaways from this report and answering your questions in a 20-minute Drop-In on Tuesday, 17th May. Register now.

Become a member to read more

This is premium content that requires an active Capital Economics subscription to view.

Already a member?

You may already have access to this premium content as part of a paid subscription.

Sign in to read the content in full or get details of how you can access it

Register for free

Sign up for a free account to gain:

  • Unlock additional content
  • Register for Capital Economics events
  • Receive email updates and economist-curated newsletters
  • Request a free trial of our services


Get access