Weak Turkish lira, Polish inflation, what to look for in 2020

The Turkish lira has been one of the worst performing currencies this month and this probably sets the scene for next year. This is a key reason why we think that the central bank will hike interest rates. Elsewhere, Poland’s energy regulator started to approve energy tariff hikes for utility companies next year, which is likely to cause inflation to jump to 3.7% y/y in January, preventing monetary easing. Finally, we set out three key stories that are likely to play out in the region in 2020 – GDP growth is likely to disappoint, monetary policy will remain loose and currencies will come under pressure.
Jason Tuvey Senior Emerging Markets Economist
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