All eyes on China’s Five-Year Plan

Data showing that the Chinese economy continued to rebound last quarter and that growth was accelerating heading into Q4 gave a lift to most industrial metals prices this week. Given China’s share of global metals consumption is far greater than its share of oil consumption, it was no surprise that oil prices did not benefit in the same way. Indeed, oil was among the worst performing commodities this week, as concerns about demand outside of China continued to hold back prices. Next week, China’s leadership will gather in Beijing to discuss the 14^th Five-Year Plan. Close attention will be paid to proposals related to the push for greater self-sufficiency. Further details on plans to boost stockpiles of key commodities could have major implications for prices over the coming years, as could any announcements on accelerating the move towards a greener economy. That said, we think that calls for a bull run in commodity prices in the year ahead are overly optimistic and expect prices to rise more gradually in tandem with the global economic recovery.