China PMIs point to weaker metals demand

China’s July survey data suggest that manufacturing and construction activity have continued to cool, which supports our view that a slowdown in China will weigh heavily on industrial metals prices.
Samuel Burman Assistant Commodities Economist
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Commodities Weekly Wrap

OPEC+ sticks to its plan, no forecast change required

Oil prices fell briefly on Thursday after OPEC+ decided to push ahead with its plan to raise oil output by 0.4m bpd a month, despite plunging oil prices since news of Omicron broke. Prices recovered shortly after, though, probably because OPEC+ left the door open to making quota changes before its next meeting in early January. It appears the group needs more time to mull over the oil-demand implications of Omicron. We have revisited our own oil market outlook. Turning to next week, China’s trade data for November comes out on Tuesday. We expect imports to have fallen, reflective of softer construction activity. We’ll be holding a Drop-In on the same day (08:00 GMT/16:00 HKT) with the China team to discuss the data and China’s commodities demand outlook (Registration). And more broadly, markets will be closely monitoring Omicron-related developments next week.

3 December 2021

Commodities Update

China PMIs still paint a bleak picture for commodities

Taken together, China’s manufacturing PMIs point to somewhat stronger industrial activity in November, but this was almost entirely due to improved power supply last month rather than a pick-up in underlying demand. Accordingly, there was little to offer support to commodity prices in the data.

1 December 2021

Commodities Update

Omicron puts demand back in the spotlight

We were already downbeat on the outlook for most commodity prices in 2022, not least because we thought that prices had lost touch with demand fundamentals. The risk of Omicron-related effects on demand just adds weight to our view. In view of the wider interest, we are also sending this Commodities Overview Update to clients of all our Commodities services.  

29 November 2021

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Energy Data Response

US Weekly Petroleum Status Report

US commercial crude stocks unexpectedly rose this week as net imports surged. Nevertheless, providing that the Delta virus variant doesn’t lead to the re-imposition of virus-related restrictions, we expect that product demand will gradually increase over the coming weeks which will weigh on crude stocks.

21 July 2021

OPEC Watch

Higher OPEC+ production to weigh on oil prices

The OPEC+ agreement, signed yesterday, should help to stabilise oil prices and we expect Brent crude to trade in a narrow band of between $70 and 75 per barrel over next six months. But we expect Brent to fall into the $60-70 range in 2022 as more global supply comes onto the market.

19 July 2021

OPEC Watch

OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (July)

OPEC’s oil production increased sharply in June, primarily because Saudi Arabia continued to unwind its voluntary production cut. Output should rise further in July on the back of larger quotas, and we expect high prices to incentivise more production from the group even without a formal agreement to do so.

15 July 2021
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