Mapping decoupling

China and countries that align more closely with it than with the US together account for around half of the world’s population. But the China bloc is far smaller economically than the US bloc and far more dependent on the rival bloc as a source both of imports and of export demand. Our decoupling map illustrates the economic challenge that division from the West would pose for China.
Julian Evans-Pritchard Senior China Economist
Continue reading

More from China

China Data Response

China GDP (Q3), Activity & Spending (Sep.)

In q/q terms, official GDP growth slowed to a crawl last quarter. And our China Activity Proxy points to a sharp contraction. Although some of the recent weakness in services is now reversing, industry and construction appear on the cusp of a deeper downturn.

18 October 2021

China Economics Weekly

Property downturn deepens, triggering easing

Supply-side disruptions mean there is an unusual amount of uncertainty about China’s recent economic performance. But one thing that’s clear is that the property sector downturn has gathered pace in recent weeks. Policymakers have responded by allowing banks to step up mortgage lending. Other easing measures are likely to follow, including rate cuts. But limits on developer financing are here to stay.

15 October 2021

China Data Response

China Consumer & Producer Prices (Sep.)

Producer price inflation reached a new high last month due to the surge in global coal prices. There are few signs that this is feeding through to higher output prices of consumer goods, however. The overall inflation outlook remains benign, with PPI inflation likely to drop back around the turn of the year and CPI inflation set to remain muted for the foreseeable future.

14 October 2021

More from Julian Evans-Pritchard

China Economics Update

A property tax could make up for fewer land sales

Local governments in China are far less reliant on land sales as a source of revenue than is often claimed. While slowing real estate development will create a funding gap, it could be more than offset with a modest property tax.

5 October 2021

China Economics Weekly

Power supply steady, heavy industry under pressure

Early data suggest that recent electricity rationing may be the result of power companies being unable to keep up with the strength of demand, rather than a substantial pullback in electricity supply. If so, then sharp falls in output across the whole of industry have probably been avoided. But the energy-intensive sectors that have been the focus of power restrictions are clearly under pressure.

1 October 2021

China Chart Book

Power shortages another blow to global supply chains

We still don’t have enough data to judge the extent of the disruption to China’s factory output from power rationing with much certainty. But with supply chains already stretched, even a modest hit to output, which producers downstream might normally cover by dipping into inventories, could affect firms’ ability to meet orders. It’s therefore concerning that the number of ships idling outside Chinese ports has jumped again in recent weeks. The initial catalyst for the spike was short-lived disruption to port operations from Typhoon Chanthu which hit China’s east coast on 12th But port congestion remaining very elevated more than two weeks later may be a sign that power rationing along the supply chain is interfering with ports’ ability to ship orders. Disruption is likely to worsen in the short-run given that the current shortage of thermal coal needed to meet power demand won’t be resolved overnight.

30 September 2021
↑ Back to top