China’s economy is growing at one of the slowest rates in years but the labour market is showing few signs of strain. Migrant wages were up 13% y/y last quarter. There are still more jobs being advertised at local employment bureaus than there are job seekers. Indeed, in Q2, fewer job seekers reported having been laid off from their previous positions than a year ago. Anecdotally too, there seems to be far less talk of job losses than in previous downturns. Labour markets tend to track economic conditions with a lag. But the continued health of China’s labour market during the last few quarters in which GDP growth has been slowing suggests that significant policy stimulus now would be a mistake.
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