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We doubt consumer staples will continue to underperform “tech”

We doubt the consumer staples sector, which has been hit particularly hard in the recent sell-off in the S&P 500, will continue to underperform “tech”-heavy sectors. ECB Drop-In (24th May 10:00 ET/15:00 BST): Could the ECB deliver a hawkish surprise? Join economists from our Europe and Markets teams for a discussion about what to expect from the Bank’s tightening cycle, including the chances for a bumper hike in July or even an early move at next month’s meeting. Register now.
Franziska Palmas Markets Economist
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Some market implications of the falls in commodity prices

We think further falls in commodity prices will contribute to continued underperformance of commodity-heavy parts of the global equity market, but won’t prevent government bond yields from rising to higher levels.

29 June 2022

Capital Daily

Rebound in long-dated Bund yields may have further to run

While we expect the recent rise in the yield of 10-year German Bunds to continue between now and the end of 2022, we think there is a significant risk that the recent calm in euro-zone “peripheral” bond markets is not sustained.

28 June 2022

Capital Daily

We doubt China’s stock market will go from strength to strength

We don’t think that the recent rally in China’s stock market sets the stage for extensive gains over the new few years.

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Global Markets Update

Risk of a surge in E-Z peripheral spreads has risen

While our central forecast remains that euro-zone “peripheral” spreads will rise only a bit between now and the end of 2022, we think that the risk of a significant increase in spreads has risen.

13 May 2022

Global Markets Update

We expect corporate bond spreads to rise a bit more

We expect concerns about global economic growth and monetary policy tightening to push up the spreads of developed market corporate bonds a bit further over the coming year. Markets Drop-In (11th May, 10:00 EDT/15:00 BST): We’re discussing our Q2 Outlook reports and what they say about the potential performance of bonds, equities and FX rates as inflation peaks in a special 20-minute briefing on Wednesday. Register now.

6 May 2022

Capital Daily

The Fed, the BoE & the outlook for DM government bonds

The yields of 10-year government bond yields in the US and the UK have already more than reversed their initial falls following the Fed’s and the Bank of England’s policy announcements and we think they will rise further over the coming year or so, along with government bond yields in other developed markets. Markets Drop-In (11th May, 10:00 EDT/15:00 BST): We’re discussing our Q2 Outlook reports and what they say about the potential performance of bonds, equities and FX rates as inflation peaks in a special 20-minute briefing on Wednesday. Register now.

5 May 2022
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