Another look at US inflation compensation

Although investors took today’s US CPI release in their stride, we still think there is scope for longer-dated Treasury yields to rise further over time.
John Higgins Chief Markets Economist
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Asset Allocation Update

Correlation between US equities & Treasuries not set in stone

While many observers seem to have been surprised by last month’s joint sell-off in US equities and Treasuries, there is no reason in principle why the two assets should be negatively correlated. It all depends on the economic and policy backdrop. Our view is that future returns from both will disappoint.

11 October 2021

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Revisiting the relative valuations of US equities and bonds

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1 October 2021

CE Spotlight

What would an era of higher inflation mean for markets?

We expect underlying inflation in the US to be significantly higher over the next decade on average than it has been over the last one. Nonetheless, we don’t think that it will climb sharply from here, or that it will coincide with much weaker economic growth or tighter monetary policy. So, in our view, markets will not falter in the way that they did during some periods of high inflation in the past.

29 September 2021
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