Nigeria’s pledge this week to fully comply with its OPEC quota by lowering production levels would, if implemented, reduce GDP growth significantly. But given the country’s poor track record, we’re sceptical that the government will follow through with its promise. In South Africa, early signs suggest that the recovery in Q2 didn’t last into Q3, strengthening our view that the Reserve Bank will cut the repo rate next week. Elsewhere, Ethiopia’s central bank governor hinted at liberalizing the exchange rate regime as part of a wider market reform drive.
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