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Nigeria’s recovery losing some steam

Timely activity figures suggest that Nigeria’s economy lost momentum in early Q4 as oil sector woes continued and the non-oil economy’s recovery slowed. Headwinds have only built since.
Virag Forizs Emerging Markets Economist
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Africa Economics Weekly

SA corruption and inflation on display, Ghana’s troubles

The president of South Africa and the ruling ANC are taking the heat as corruption accusations fly. With political bickering likely to grow, the focus on boosting the economy with much-needed reforms is likely to take a backseat. Meanwhile, we think that the latest inflation reading out of South Africa will shift the debate on the scale of further monetary tightening towards 75bp steps. And in Ghana, policymakers appear to be stepping up efforts to support the cedi but at the risk of adding to the economy's pain.

24 June 2022

Africa Data Response

South Africa Consumer Prices (May)

The rise in inflation in South Africa to an above-target 6.5% y/y in May is likely to shift the debate to a choice between a 50bp and a 75bp hike to interest rates at July’s MPC meeting. But inflation continues to be driven by food and energy price effects and, if the headline rate falls sharply over the rest of this year as we expect, interest rates will probably be raised by less than investors anticipate over 2022-24.

22 June 2022

Africa Economics Update

Where next for inflation in South Africa?

Inflation in South Africa has been close to the top of the central bank’s target range in recent months, but the country has avoided the surge in inflation seen across much of the world. And there are reasons to think that the headline rate will drop back sharply by the end of this year. That underpins our view that monetary policy will ultimately be tightened by less than investors currently expect.

21 June 2022

More from Virag Forizs

Africa Data Response

South Africa Activity Data (Oct.)

South Africa’s hard activity data for October confirm that the economy was struggling even before the emergence of a fourth virus wave, which will probably dampen activity further. In light of this, policymakers at the Reserve Bank will be in no rush to tighten monetary policy aggressively.

9 December 2021

Africa Data Response

South Africa GDP (Q3)

South Africa’s GDP contracted by 1.5% q/q in Q3 as violent unrest and a third virus wave hit the economy hard, and the more recent data suggest that activity remained depressed even before the latest rise in COVID-19 cases driven by the Omicron variant. Against this backdrop, monetary policy tightening is unlikely to be as aggressive as most currently anticipate.

7 December 2021

Africa Economics Weekly

Lockdown lessons from SA, influx of jabs and cash?

South African policymakers appear to be reluctant to impose restrictions in the face of the threat from the Omicron variant, but their hand could be forced if the health system comes under strain. In previous waves, measures have been tightened when hospitalisations have breached 5,000. While we’re some way off that, the figures are on an upwards path. Meanwhile, ambitious pledges by Africa’s key development partners including China and the EU on vaccines and infrastructure investment will lift the region’s longer-term economic prospects. Finally, even with the IMF on board, restoring Zambia’s debt sustainability will remain challenging.

3 December 2021
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