South Africa Consumer Prices (Jul.)

South Africa’s headline inflation rate eased in July, to 4.6% y/y, as fears that recent violent unrest would fuel inflation pressures proved to be overdone. Underlying price pressures remain soft and, against that backdrop, we think that interest rates will remain on hold for longer than investors currently anticipate.
Virag Forizs Emerging Markets Economist
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Africa Data Response

South Africa Consumer Prices (Sep.)

Although South Africa’s headline inflation rate picked up to 5.0% y/y in September, soft underlying price pressures and a fragile economic recovery mean that policymakers will only normalise monetary policy gradually. By contrast, investors currently appear to expect a relatively aggressive tightening cycle.

20 October 2021

Africa Economics Weekly

FX orthodoxy in Nigeria? Strikes in SA, Ethiopia’s conflict

Comments by Nigeria’s vice president endorsing a more market-based exchange rate regime reflect growing concern about the distortionary effects of the current FX system, but there is no evidence that key officials backing the existing currency arrangements are also shifting tack. In South Africa, ongoing industrial action in the steel industry will probably dampen manufacturing output in Q4, in another hit to the recovery in the sector and the wider economy. Finally, escalating tensions in Ethiopia raise the spectre of more severe strains in the balance of payments.

15 October 2021

Africa Data Response

Nigeria Consumer Prices (Sep.)

The drop in the headline inflation rate in Nigeria, to 16.6% y/y in September, will ease pressure on the central bank to raise rates and allow policymakers to focus on supporting the economic recovery.

15 October 2021

More from Virag Forizs

Africa Data Response

Nigeria Consumer Prices (Jul.)

Policymakers will probably take comfort in the latest fall in Nigeria’s headline inflation rate, to 17.4% y/y in July, even as price pressures mount in major price categories outside of food. Interest rates are likely to be left unchanged throughout the next couple of years.

17 August 2021

Africa Economics Update

Zambia: on the rocky road to restore macro stability

The victory of Hakainde Hichilema in last week’s Zambian elections will probably nudge the country in the direction of more prudent macroeconomic policies and reforms under an IMF deal. These may bear fruit over a long time horizon, but we think that the recovery will remain sluggish in the near-term.

16 August 2021

Africa Economics Weekly

Economic fortunes changing in Zambia and South Africa?

This week Zambians voted in tightly contested elections and, while the results have not yet been announced, one way or another it looks like fiscal policy will be tightened. Meanwhile in South Africa, activity data suggest that the manufacturing sector was struggling even before violent unrest and the further tightening of virus restrictions in July. But there were at least some positive steps taken this week to help address chronic power outages.

13 August 2021
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