Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Oct.) Mexican inflation remained at 3.0% y/y October, which supports our view that policymakers will cut their key rate from 7.75% to 7.25% by the end of this year. 24th October 2019 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Hawkish Riksbank to reverse course in 2020 Having left its repo rate on hold at -0.25% this morning, we do not doubt the Riksbank’s clear intent to raise it to zero in December. However, with economic growth set to slow in 2020, and underlying... 24th October 2019 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Indonesia: approaching the end of the easing cycle Bank Indonesia (BI) cut interest rates again today and signalled that its main priority remains supporting the struggling economy. However, if the rupiah starts to drop back against the US dollar over... 24th October 2019 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Chile cuts rates, drops heavy hints for more easing Chilean policymakers’ decision to cut their key interest rate by 25bp yesterday and the dovish tone of the accompanying statement supports our view that the easing cycle has further to run. We... 24th October 2019 · 3 mins read
Bank of Japan Watch Bank to keep policy rates unchanged The economic data have weakened a little further since the Bank’s September meeting. But amid continued concerns about the impact of loose policy on financial stability, we aren’t convinced that the... 24th October 2019 · 7 mins read
US Fed Watch Fed to cut rates again amid economic slowdown With the markets still fully pricing in another 25bp rate cut at next week’s FOMC meeting and officials doing nothing to push back against those expectations, there is little point trying to deny that... 23rd October 2019 · 7 mins read
Asia Economics Update Would QE work in Korea? There have been suggestions that the Bank of Korea (BoK) might soon need to adopt some of the unconventional policy measures that are being tried by the world’s major central banks. However, evidence... 23rd October 2019 · 3 mins read
India Chart Pack Government bond yields likely to rise Local bond yields have dropped over the past few months as the Reserve Bank has continued easing monetary policy, but we think they will start rising again before long. Fiscal policy has been loosened... 23rd October 2019 · 9 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Fiscal stimulus urgently needed but unlikely We estimate that a fiscal stimulus equivalent to 1.5% of GDP would still be consistent with maintaining Australia’s AAA-rating. Unfortunately, fiscal policy probably won’t come to the rescue, leaving... 23rd October 2019 · 3 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 (Oct.) The fall in Brazilian inflation to 2.7% y/y in the middle of October, one of its lowest rates on record, means policymakers will (barring any hiccups in the final vote on pension reform later today)... 22nd October 2019 · 2 mins read
UK Markets Chart Pack Further upside for sterling if Brexit deal is approved If Boris Johnson’s Brexit deal is approved in Parliament soon, we expect the pound would rise from $1.29 now to about $1.35 and 10-year gilt yields would increase from 0.72% to around 0.90% by the end... 22nd October 2019 · 9 mins read
China Economics Update Easing yet to come The newly-revamped Loan Prime Rate (LPR), the reference point against which banks now price loans, was unchanged in October. This will only increase pressure on the PBOC to ease funding costs for... 21st October 2019 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus RBA to launch QE as inflation weakens further Underlying inflation was moored well below the lower end of the RBA’s 2-3% target band even as the housing market was booming and the labour market was tightening. With the unemployment rate set to... 21st October 2019 · 17 mins read
India Economics Weekly Credit growth likely to rebound soon The continued slowdown in credit growth in September challenges our view that the economy is set to recover after a weak first half of the year. But with lending rates now beginning to drop in earnest... 18th October 2019 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Stimulus in Korea, Jokowi’s second term, IMF forecasts GDP figures due to be released next week are likely to show Korea’s economy remained very subdued in Q3 – we have pencilled in growth of just 0.4% q/q. But with fiscal and monetary policy being... 18th October 2019 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA will eventually push the QE button The drop in the unemployment rate in September means that the RBA won’t cut interest rates in November. But we still expect the labour market and underlying inflation to weaken over the coming months... 18th October 2019 · 3 mins read
