Asia Chart Pack Asian central banks in little rush to raise rates Over the past month or so, the central banks of Korea, Pakistan and Sri Lanka have all raised interest rates, but we don’t think other countries will be in any rush to follow suit. There is certainly... 29th September 2021 · 15 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Re-opening boost fades as supply disruptions mount Economies across Emerging Europe enjoyed a rapid rebound in Q2, but all the signs suggest that the recovery has come off the boil in Q3. Surveys of sentiment in services sectors have started to... 29th September 2021 · 15 mins read
Asia Economics Update Thailand: rates to stay low for an extended period The Bank of Thailand (BoT) left interest rates on hold today at 0.5%, and we have taken out the rate cut we originally had pencilled in for this year. However, rate hikes are still a long way off. 29th September 2021 · 2 mins read
RBI Watch Rate hikes remain a distant prospect Policy rates are highly likely to be left unchanged at the conclusion of the RBI’s upcoming MPC meeting on Friday 8 th October, particularly given the recent drop in inflation. The committee might... 29th September 2021 · 6 mins read
RBNZ Watch RBNZ finally set to hike rates New Zealand has slowed the spread of the Delta variant and eased its lockdown, which stopped the RBNZ from hiking in August. And the RBNZ still seems keen to hike rates given the red-hot economy. We... 29th September 2021 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Rise in inflation to prove short-lived Inflation in many economies in the region has risen to multi-year highs in recent months. In general, this has been driven higher by a combination of unfavourable base effects from the pandemic, as... 28th September 2021 · 14 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack External headwinds growing Falling new virus cases and the lifting of restrictions have boosted economies across the region in Q3, but the deteriorating external backdrop will put a lid on growth from here. Even with an orderly... 28th September 2021 · 14 mins read
RBA Watch RBA set to hike in 2023 With the latest lockdowns set to end next month, we expect the RBA to taper its bond purchases in February. We still expect wage growth to accelerate more rapidly than the Bank anticipates and stick... 28th September 2021 · 8 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Labour shortages getting worse Labour shortages have intensified in recent months, which could both act as a brake on the recovery and lead to a stronger acceleration in wage growth. According to the CFIB Business Barometer, the... 27th September 2021 · 8 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Rate cut in Thailand, Taiwan applies to join CPTPP With the economy in the doldrums and deflation worries increasing, we think the Bank of Thailand will cut interest rates by a further 25bp at its meeting on Wednesday (most other analysts are... 24th September 2021 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Evergrande fallout on Lat Am, Peronist infighting Fears over Chinese property giant Evergrande rocked global markets earlier this week and Latin American economies, particularly Chile and Peru, are among the most exposed in the world to problems in... 24th September 2021 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Czech the exception as rate hikes slow, Russia sanctions Central banks have started to slow tightening cycles in recent weeks and, in Turkey’s case, begin cutting interest rates. As inflation pressures ease, this pattern is likely to continue. But the Czech... 24th September 2021 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Why we changed our mind on the BoE There were two key reasons behind our decision to forecast that the Bank of England will first raise interest rates in 2022 rather than in 2023. First, there is more evidence that the rise in... 24th September 2021 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB rate hikes a distant prospect, Merkel era at an end Even as other central banks hinted this week at a shift towards tighter monetary policy, we doubt that the ECB will follow suit. Meanwhile, the business surveys suggested that while supply-chain... 24th September 2021 · 7 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Norges Bank and Riksbank to follow different paths Having finally begun its tightening cycle this week, we forecast the Norges Bank to raise its policy rate to 1.50% by end-2022, which is more hawkish than is currently priced into the market... 24th September 2021 · 4 mins read
US Economics Weekly Debt ceiling could still delay QE taper This week the focus was on the Fed, which appears intent on announcing a QE taper at the next FOMC meeting in early November. Next week the focus will shift to fiscal policy, with the Democrat’s plans... 24th September 2021 · 7 mins read
