EM Markets Chart Pack EM currencies likely to weaken; Chilean peso an exception Optimism about an imminent resolution to the trade war between the US and China and subsiding protests in Latin America have supported EM currencies over the past month. But, barring a few exceptions... 11th December 2019 · 7 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Central Bank of Iceland in “wait-and-see” mode After cutting rates by 150bps since April, the Central Bank of Iceland kept its deposit rate at its current record low of 3.00% today. We suspect that in the absence of a sharp and sustained fall in... 11th December 2019 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Our key calls for 2020 We think that GDP growth in both Australia and New Zealand will fall short of expectations, forcing both the RBNZ and the RBA to cut interest rates more sharply than most expect. The consensus is that... 10th December 2019 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Focus The lessons from negative interest rates so far There is little evidence that negative interest rates have succeeded in boosting economic growth or inflation expectations. But equally, they do not seem to have done much harm either – many of the... 9th December 2019 · 14 mins read
India Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Nov.) The continued weakness of core inflation that we expect in November’s consumer price data will probably give the MPC scope to ease policy again in the near term. But the big picture is that the... 9th December 2019 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly Over to you, finance ministry While unexpectedly keeping rates on hold yesterday, the RBI put the onus on the finance ministry to do more of the heavy lifting to boost demand. So if we are right in thinking that the finance... 6th December 2019 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Australian economy is not ‘back on track’ Australia’s economy may be past the worst but we still expect GDP growth to fall short of potential over the coming year. That means that unemployment will probably rise further, putting downward... 6th December 2019 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Chile holds rates, but cuts still likely in late 2020 The statement accompanying the Chilean central bank’s decision to hold interest rates at 1.75% yesterday signalled that policy rates will be left unchanged over Q1, but we still think it’s most likely... 5th December 2019 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update RBI leaves rates unchanged, but easing cycle isn’t over The Reserve Bank unexpectedly left interest rates unchanged for the first time this year, following five successive rate cuts. Nevertheless, the MPC has left the door open for further easing in the... 5th December 2019 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - Stable financial system allows RBNZ to cut rates The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s decision to leave mortgage lending restrictions unchanged and tighten capital requirements means that lending and house prices are unlikely to surge in 2020. As such... 5th December 2019 · 4 mins read
US Fed Watch Rates on hold for the next few years The Fed’s less dovish language, against a backdrop of fading downside risks, is why we think the Fed is now done cutting interest rates. We anticipate rates will remain at their current level of 1.50%... 4th December 2019 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Nov.) The rise in Turkish inflation in November is likely to mark the start of a steady upward trend over the next couple of years. This won’t prevent the central bank from cutting interest rates further at... 3rd December 2019 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA will have to ease policy further The RBA turned more optimistic when it kept rates unchanged today but we think that further stimulus will be required before long. We reiterate our long-held view that the Bank will cut rates to 0.25%... 3rd December 2019 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update Should the BoJ target shorter bond yields? The IMF has suggested that the Bank of Japan could target shorter bond yields in order to steepen the yield curve and support the profitability of financial institutions. But the benefits to insurance... 3rd December 2019 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Nov.) Our sales to new listings ratio suggests that house price growth will moderate before long. Even so given the sharp increase in recent months, we now expect prices to rise by around 7% in 2020 and 5%... 2nd December 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Q3 the high point in the regional recovery We estimate that regional GDP growth picked up to about 0.5% q/q in Q3, which would be the fastest pace in 18 months. But that probably marks the peak in the recovery. Argentina and Chile are set to... 29th November 2019 · 12 mins read
