Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Soaring house prices won’t prevent further easing Australia’s house prices rose the most in a decade last quarter and leading indicators suggest they will keep growing at an annual rate of more than 10%. However, there are no signs that households... 3rd January 2020 · 5 mins read
China Data Response PMIs (Dec.) The manufacturing PMIs ended 2019 higher than where they started the year but we doubt this means the worst is over for China’s economy. While it does appear that export growth is bottoming out... 2nd January 2020 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Update Bailey faces some challenges as new BoE Governor The confirmation that Andrew Bailey will take over from Mark Carney as Governor of the Bank of England on 16th March 2020 doesn’t change the outlook for monetary policy. But Bailey will face many... 20th December 2019 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly BoK to cut again, Sri Lanka on slow road to recovery Minutes from the Bank of Korea’s (BoK) November rate meeting reveal that while only one of the seven members of its Monetary Policy Board voted for a cut, other members also struck a dovish tone. We... 20th December 2019 · 9 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly BoJ back in its comfort zone as 2020 approaches The most reliable measure of consumption showed a rather smaller drop in spending in October. The upshot is that the contraction in Q4 GDP probably won’t be as severe as we had anticipated. Meanwhile... 20th December 2019 · 7 mins read
China Economics Update Loan Prime Rates on hold but cuts still on the horizon The Loan Prime Rate (LPR), the reference point against which banks now price loans, held steady in December. The one-year LPR was unchanged at 4.15% (both the Bloomberg consensus and our forecast were... 20th December 2019 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly Vegetable prices still rising, populism risk grows RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das reiterated this week that, despite the RBI keeping rates on hold this month, the easing cycle isn’t necessarily over. But the continued rise in vegetable prices over the... 20th December 2019 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Diverging fortunes Australia’s labour market is showing signs of stabilisation but GDP growth is set to fall short of the RBA’s expectations. As such, we still expect the RBA to cut interest rates at the upcoming... 20th December 2019 · 4 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Mixed end to a disappointing year The last round of economic data released this year pointed to a mixed performance in Latin America. Growth seems to have remained robust in Colombia in Q4 – and to have strengthened in Brazil – but... 19th December 2019 · 13 mins read
UK Economics Update MPC remains in wait and see mode The tone of December’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) statement and minutes was barely changed from November, indicating that the MPC is content to sit on its hands for the time being. As a result... 19th December 2019 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Focus What to expect in 2020 and how we differ from consensus Growth in Emerging Asia has struggled over the past year. While most economies should stage a modest recovery over the coming quarters on the back of looser fiscal and monetary policy, with China... 19th December 2019 · 9 mins read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan on prolonged hold The Bank of Japan didn’t surprise anyone by keeping interest rates unchanged today and we think it will remain on hold for the foreseeable future. 19th December 2019 · 3 mins read
Africa Chart Pack South Africa: A year to forget The final round of South African data released this year supported our view that the economy faltered in recent months. Output fell by 0.6% q/q saar in Q3, and the latest figures suggest that the... 18th December 2019 · 13 mins read
China Chart Pack US demanding implausibly large import ramp up China’s apparent reluctance to commit to the extra $200bn of US imports relative to 2017 levels that the US is requesting over the next two years as part of the Phase One deal is understandable... 18th December 2019 · 11 mins read
Asia Economics Update Thailand: rates on hold, but further easing next year The Bank of Thailand (BoT) left its policy rate unchanged today, but further rate cuts are likely next year. 18th December 2019 · 2 mins read
India Chart Pack Populist shift a risk for long-run outlook The citizen amendment bill – which aims to fast-track citizenship for non-Muslims from neighbouring Muslim-majority countries – has dominated the news over the past couple of weeks. This isn’t... 18th December 2019 · 9 mins read
