Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook RBA’s work not done yet Australia’s house prices may rise by 8% this year but consumers are still reeling under high debt loads. With growth set to fall short of potential, we still expect unemployment to rise further which... 16th January 2020 · 22 mins read
UK Economics Update Our thoughts on the chances of a January rate cut We have argued for some time that a near-term interest rate cut is a strong possibility. The market has now come around to this view. While the decision is a toss-up, at least until we see the next... 15th January 2020 · 3 mins read
Temporary nature of slowdown to keep Bank on hold Next week the Bank of Canada is likely to once again trim its forecast for GDP growth. But as temporary factors are partly to blame and there have been several positive external developments in recent... 15th January 2020 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Focus Brazil: stuck in the slow lane The prevailing view that this will be the year when Brazil’s recovery finally shifts up a gear looks overly optimistic. We expect that GDP growth will come in at just 1.5% over 2020, which leaves us... 14th January 2020 · 12 mins read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Dec.) The RBI doesn’t put much weight on the wholesale price measure of inflation, but the fact that it accelerated to a seven-month high in December nevertheless supports our view that the rate-cutting... 14th January 2020 · 2 mins read
Bank of Japan Watch Chances of policy easing diminishing The Bank of Japan will almost certainly leave policy settings unchanged when its forthcoming meeting concludes on 21st January as recent data have mostly been reassuring. And while we expect the... 14th January 2020 · 7 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Lower for longer: EM interest rates after the golden era This decade is likely to be marked by slower growth and softer inflation in emerging markets. One consequence is that interest rates will probably be lower than most currently anticipate. 13th January 2020 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Frankenshock continues to cast a shadow on the SNB Five years after the so-called Frankenshock, the SNB is near the end of the road for conventional monetary easing. Accordingly, the Bank may be forced to make another radical policy choice if there is... 13th January 2020 · 6 mins read
Long Run Economic Outlook EM catch-up to slow as globalisation stalls 10th January 2020 · 1 hr, 9 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Diminishing capacity shortages won’t prompt rate cuts Capacity shortages remained pronounced on the eve on the sales tax hike. And even though we expect the output gap to decline a bit over the coming months, that probably won’t trigger additional easing... 10th January 2020 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Central Europe: central banks to shrug off high inflation The recent rise in inflation to multi-year highs across most of Central Europe has only a little further to run, but it will stay above central banks’ targets across the region this year. Policymakers... 9th January 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economic Outlook The road to recovery After a year to forget in 2019, a combination of policy loosening and more effective measures to deal with the malaise in the shadow banking sector will push economic growth in India back up to a... 9th January 2020 · 19 mins read
India Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Dec.) Another surge in headline CPI inflation in December, perhaps to a five-year high, means that the RBI’s easing cycle is probably over. And a rise in core inflation over the coming quarters should... 9th January 2020 · 3 mins read
Japan Economic Outlook Growth to fall short of expectations The sales tax hike has not been as damaging as many had feared. But we remain more pessimistic about the outlook for global growth and domestic investment than most. That explains why we expect GDP to... 8th January 2020 · 22 mins read
China Economics Weekly Hukou reforms & property, RRR cut, loan repricing The interest rates on virtually all outstanding loans issued by China’s banks will be renegotiated over the next few months as the PBOC implements the most consequential phase of its efforts to... 3rd January 2020 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Dec.) The stronger-than-expected rise in Turkish inflation in December means that this month’s interest rate decision will be a close call. For now, we think that the central bank will cave into pressure... 3rd January 2020 · 3 mins read
