Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: threat of currency crisis continues to grow The Turkish lira has remained under significant pressure at the start of this week and there is a growing risk that the central bank’s continued obedience to pressure from President Erdogan for... 16th November 2021 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Higher rates quickly adding to Brazil’s fiscal challenge By next year, Brazil’s public sector interest payments could be almost twice as large (at ~8% of GDP) as they were in 2020, making the challenge of stabilising the public debt-to-GDP ratio all the... 15th November 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Focus ECB will persist with QE and negative rates for years We expect the ECB to interpret a period of above-target inflation as “transient” even if it lasts for well over a year. Although it will end its emergency PEPP programme next March, the Bank will step... 15th November 2021 · 25 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Core inflation concerns, elections in focus The October CPI figures out of the region this week, which showed a marked strengthening of core inflation, are likely to ring alarm bells for central banks in the region and may trigger larger rate... 12th November 2021 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SARB to hike or not to hike? That’s investors’ question The big event next week is South Africa’s MPC meeting which will be a very close call, but on balance we think that the first rate hike will not be delivered just yet. And, further ahead, the... 12th November 2021 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly CEE inflation worries mount, Turkish lira closing in on 10 Inflation data out of Central and Eastern Europe this week provided for ugly viewing and with headline rates likely to rise further above central bank's targets in the coming months, this will keep... 12th November 2021 · 11 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Would the SNB be comfortable with franc/euro parity? The persistent weakness of Swiss inflation, and the resulting trend appreciation in the nominal exchange rate, presents the SNB with a moving target when assessing when it will intervene during bouts... 12th November 2021 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly South East Asia disruption eases, Sri Lanka in peril Recent data from Malaysia and Vietnam suggest that virus-related disruption is continuing to ease. This should help alleviate some of the supply constraints currently holding back growth elsewhere in... 12th November 2021 · 8 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Banxico sticking to gradual pace of tightening The Mexican central bank’s 25bp rate hike, to 5.00%, and the accompanying statement showed little sign that policymakers are likely to follow their peers in Latin America by upping the pace of... 12th November 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Inflation will keep the RBA under pressure Business purchase costs in the October NAB survey rose to their strongest level since 2008, consistent with trimmed mean inflation of nearly 1.5% q/q. That probably overstates the strength in... 12th November 2021 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack More signs that the recovery is hitting the buffers Recent indicators confirm that the global recovery has continued, but also that it has entered a slower and more difficult phase. US GDP growth slowed sharply in Q3, and our China Activity Proxy... 11th November 2021 · 13 mins read
UK Economics Inflation on the launchpad We’ve been warning for a while that CPI inflation would rise further than most people expect and have recently pushed our own forecast even higher. We now think CPI inflation will rise from 3.1% in... 10th November 2021 · 9 mins read
Asia Economics Update Bank of Thailand in no rush to tighten The Bank of Thailand (BoT) left interest rates on hold today at 0.5%, and the poor outlook for the economy means rates are likely to remain low for some considerable time. 10th November 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Rate hikes to take some heat out of growth and inflation The sharp tightening of monetary policy in the region will strengthen the preference for savings, dampen lending growth and raise debt servicing costs next year. It is plausible to think that higher... 9th November 2021 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA recapitalisation would lift public debt Rising interest rates will result in the RBA making further losses in the years ahead. The Bank’s existing reserves should be enough to absorb those losses in a benign scenario, but the Bank will stop... 9th November 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Recovery slowed by supply chain problems Economic growth has slowed sharply as output approaches its pre-pandemic level. We think that GDP will probably increase by only around 0.5% q/q in the final quarter, down from 2.2% in Q3... 8th November 2021 · 12 mins read
