Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Feb.) The further increase in Turkish inflation in February probably won’t be enough to deter the central bank from easing monetary policy a little more in the next couple of months. But policymakers have... 3rd March 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - RBA to cut rates to 0.25% in April With the impact of the coronavirus on economic activity set to intensify, we expect the RBA to follow up today’s 25bp rate cut with another 25bp cut in April. It looks increasingly likely that the... 3rd March 2020 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update How will the BoJ respond to the coronavirus? We suspect that the BoJ’s response to the coronavirus will mostly consist of liquidity provision to banks and a renewed acceleration of its ETF purchases. We are not forecasting a cut in the Bank’s... 2nd March 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - Coronavirus raises pressure on RBA to cut rates The slump in China’s PMIs in February and the continued spread of the coronavirus beyond China has raised the odds that the RBA will cut interest rates at tomorrow’s meeting. On balance though, we... 2nd March 2020 · 3 mins read
US Economics Weekly Grim week raises pressure on the Fed The threat of a coronavirus outbreak in the US is a significant downside risk to the economic outlook. The Fed can do nothing to halt the spread of the virus, but a further tightening of financial... 28th February 2020 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Could the markets force the MPC to cut rates? The sharp falls in equity prices show that things are moving fast and this week we revised down our 2020 GDP growth forecast to reflect the damage to the global economy from the coronavirus. But the... 28th February 2020 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Potential loss of sports income is no issue for the SNB The possibility of the Olympics and/or the European Football Championships being cancelled as a result of the coronavirus poses downside risks to headline Swiss GDP growth this year. Nonetheless, this... 27th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Bank of Korea holds, but cut still likely The Bank of Korea (BoK) unexpectedly left its main policy rate on hold at 1.25% today. But with the economic cost of the coronavirus mounting, policy support will have to be ramped up soon – we are... 27th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Dovish policy statement coming The potential for the coronavirus to develop into a pandemic is clearly the biggest risk to our view that the Bank of Canada will keep policy on hold this year. We expect the Bank to remain on the... 26th February 2020 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Threat from the coronavirus continues to grow We estimate GDP growth in Australia continued to muddle along in Q4, edging up from 0.4% q/q in Q3 to 0.5% q/q. In New Zealand, we think a stronger contribution from net trade was offset by a decline... 26th February 2020 · 10 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary’s MPC hints at possible rate hike in March The slightly more hawkish tone of the Hungarian central bank’s post-meeting statement supports our view that the central bank will deliver a 10bp hike in the overnight deposit rate next month. However... 25th February 2020 · 3 mins read
RBA Watch RBA can’t ignore weak labour market much longer The Reserve Bank of Australia remains worried that further loosening will provide additional fuel to soaring property prices and won’t cut interest rates at the meeting on Tuesday 3rd March. But with... 25th February 2020 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary: shift towards tightening will be limited Hungary’s central bank will probably use Tuesday’s meeting to flag a shift towards tightening and we expect a small hike in the overnight deposit rate in March. But this is likely to be a symbolic... 24th February 2020 · 3 mins read
India Chart Pack The coronavirus impact on Indian industry Temporary disruption from the outbreak of the coronavirus should have limited macroeconomic impact on Indian industry. After all, India has a negligible supply-chain exposure to China, where factory... 24th February 2020 · 9 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly The fiscal response, political worries in Thailand The policy response to the coronavirus outbreak has so far been led by the region’s central banks, but governments are also now stepping up to the plate. Earlier this week, Singapore unveiled a budget... 21st February 2020 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update CBE to pause easing cycle for a little longer The Central Bank of Egypt’s (CBE) decision to keep interest rates unchanged last night for a second consecutive meeting suggests that policymakers are more concerned by the recent uptick in inflation... 21st February 2020 · 2 mins read
