Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Recession in Australia is now very likely New comprehensive restrictions on travel mean that both Australia and New Zealand are headed for recession. We expect the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to follow up today’s emergency 75bp rate cut with... 16th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Taking stock of the policy responses so far Following the raft of policy measures by Nordic central banks this week, the focus next week will be on what the SNB has up its sleeve. We have pencilled in a cut in the policy rate, to -1.00%. Other... 13th March 2020 · 4 mins read
China Economics Update PBOC loosens further as newly-reported cases stall The People’s Bank has taken another step to push down borrowing costs. China’s economy is still operating far below its normal capacity but, with only eight new infections reported nationally in the... 13th March 2020 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update What more can the Fed do? The Fed has already slashed interest rates and flooded the markets with liquidity, but it will have to go further in the coming weeks, with a return to near-zero interest rates and a resumption of... 13th March 2020 · 4 mins read
China Economics Weekly PBOC mulling deposit rate cut to shore up banks Recent monetary easing has squeezed bank margins, causing concern among policymakers. The People’s Bank has hinted that, in order to take some pressure off the banks and give them room to lower... 13th March 2020 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB response highlights EZ policy weakness The measures unveiled by the ECB today were as substantial as expected. But, along with Ms Lagarde’s comments, they underlined that the ECB has little firepower left, that there has been no... 12th March 2020 · 3 mins read
US Fed Watch Fed to lower rates to near-zero We expect the Fed to cut interest rates by an additional 50bp at the scheduled FOMC meeting next week, with a final 50bp cut at the April meeting taking the fed funds rate back to its crisis-era level... 11th March 2020 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Norges Bank to use its monetary space Amid a raft of rate cuts by other G10 central banks, and the recent plunge in oil prices, we have pencilled in a 50bp rate cut at the Norges Bank’s meeting next Thursday. We expect policymakers to... 11th March 2020 · 5 mins read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Feb.) Credit growth was stable last month despite the slump in economic activity. In most countries, credit growth would slow sharply in response to a shock such as the coronavirus, as households defer... 11th March 2020 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Update Three bangs from the Bank with the Budget to come The Bank of England’s 50bps emergency interest rate cut, from 0.75% back to the record low of 0.25%, and other measures aimed to support loans to businesses announced this morning is the first salvo... 11th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - Recession will prompt RBNZ to slash rates We think that the coronavirus outbreak and the related disruptions in China and to tourism more broadly will push the New Zealand economy into recession. That’s why we expect the RBNZ to slash rates... 11th March 2020 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Fed will lower rates to near-zero again Based on the continuing slump in stock markets and the global spread of the coronavirus, we agree with the view in markets that the Fed will cut interest rates to near-zero within the next couple of... 9th March 2020 · 4 mins read
Bank to slash rates to near-zero On top of the rapidly spreading coronavirus outbreak, the slump in oil prices raises the risk of recession this year and suggests that the Bank of Canada will slash its policy rate to just 0.25%. 9th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Repo rate cut to be the Riksbank’s first port of call Against a backdrop of rising pressure on major central banks to loosen policy in response to coronavirus, we now forecast the Riksbank to cut its repo rate back into negative territory at its 28th... 9th March 2020 · 4 mins read
Japan Data Response Economy Watchers Survey (Feb.) The plunge in the Economy Watcher’s Survey (EWS) in February to its lowest level since the 2011 tsunami suggests that the intensified spread of the coronavirus will cause consumer spending to fall... 9th March 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - Will the RBA launch a yield curve target? Most central banks that have introduced quantitative easing in recent years have done so by pledging to buy a certain amount of government bonds. Our base case is that the RBA will do the same when it... 9th March 2020 · 3 mins read
