US Economics Weekly Economy to take a hit despite Fed’s intervention The Fed’s emergency rate cut this week made it clear that officials are taking the economic risks posed by the coronavirus outbreak seriously. But with the number of new cases rising sharply, we don’t... 6th March 2020 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Grim outlook means RBA will launch QE before long Recent data show that the Australian economy was sputtering even before the coronavirus started to spread within the country in earnest. We now think the rising number of cases in Australia will cause... 6th March 2020 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Recession appears baked in, fresh stimulus on the way Consumer spending has rebounded from the slump caused by October’s sales tax hike and we’ve pencilled in a rise in the first quarter. But the coronavirus is likely to result in a renewed slowdown over... 6th March 2020 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Virus a growing threat to domestic activity The jump in coronavirus cases in India this week underlines the threat of a wide-scale outbreak in the country. We are now working on the assumption that this takes place and have revised down our... 6th March 2020 · 5 mins read
China Economics Update Policy stimulus: How much and will it work? China is easing monetary policy and lining up fiscal stimulus measures worth at least 2% of GDP. The impact will be muted as long as the workforce is still facing major disruption. But these measures... 5th March 2020 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update Sri Lanka to keep rates on hold this year The Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL) left interest rates unchanged today, and while it kept the door open to loosening, high inflation and the CBSL’s concern over the rupee limits the scope for... 5th March 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Feb.) Headline consumer price inflation is likely to have dropped sharply in February, in large part due to a moderation in food inflation. This should further embolden the RBI to follow its global peers... 5th March 2020 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Policy response from Polish MPC likely to be small With the coronavirus outbreak spreading across Europe and its disruption to economic activity likely to mount, we think that the Polish central bank will ease policy this year. But the tone of the MPC... 4th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Bank to cut interest rates again in April The growing risk of COVID-19 to the outlook suggests that the Bank of Canada will follow today’s 50 bp cut in interest rates with an additional 25 bp cut in April. Given the Governing Council’s... 4th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Coronavirus to trigger more widespread EM rate cuts The continued spread of the coronavirus and the Fed’s emergency rate cut will result in more aggressive loosening in EMs than we previously envisaged. We expect central banks in much of Emerging Asia... 4th March 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Coronavirus concerns to prompt rate cut In a change to our previous forecast, we now think that the economic effects of the coronavirus will result in GDP growth slowing to just 0.7% this year and will soon prompt the Bank of England to cut... 3rd March 2020 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update Fed to follow up emergency cut with more action In a dramatic turnaround from last week, when even the most dovish of Fed officials didn’t appear to support any additional policy loosening, the Fed announced an emergency inter-meeting 50bp rate cut... 3rd March 2020 · 2 mins read
ECB Watch ECB virus response likely to include a rate cut The ECB will need to respond to the Covid-19 virus, which has already prompted a 50bp rate cut by the Fed, but we think it will do so on its own terms. This is likely to include a 10bp deposit rate... 3rd March 2020 · 8 mins read
Global Economics Update Policymakers in DMs to respond to coronavirus risks It is now likely that the central banks of major developed markets (DMs) will follow Australia in loosening monetary policy to help their economies weather the impact of the coronavirus. But there is... 3rd March 2020 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Update Coronavirus will force Bank of Japan to cut rates Two developments over the past couple of days have caused us to change our thinking on the outlook for monetary policy in Japan. We now assume that the coronavirus will spread widely across most of... 3rd March 2020 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update Further rate cuts likely in Malaysia Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) today cut its policy rate from 2.75% to 2.50%, and with headwinds to growth worsening, we think the central bank will ease policy again at its next policy meeting in May. 3rd March 2020 · 3 mins read
