Emerging Europe Economics Update Surprise Czech rate hike to be a one-off The statement and press conference following today’s MPC meeting confirmed that the surprise decision to hike interest rates by 25bp, to 2.25%, will be a one-off. Policymakers will probably maintain a... 6th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Central banks to leave inflation-targeting intact…for now While several central banks are undertaking reviews of their monetary policy frameworks this year, the result is likely to be only small tweaks to the existing inflation-targeting frameworks. But this... 6th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Philippines: BSP cuts, more easing to come The Philippines (BSP) cut its main policy rate by 25bp to 3.75% today and with growth likely to disappoint and inflation set to remain well within the BSP’s target, we expect more easing later this... 6th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: easing cycle over, but rates to stay low The statement accompanying the Brazilian central bank’s meeting last night gave a clear steer that the easing cycle is now over. With growth likely to stay weak and inflation low, we expect that the... 6th February 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update RBI’s easing cycle at an end While keeping rates on hold today, the RBI has kept the door open for further policy loosening over the coming months. But we doubt this will materialise, and expect the central bank to shift to... 6th February 2020 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update Coronavirus: Gauging the policy response Policymakers have loosened both monetary and fiscal policy in an effort to soften the economic blow from the coronavirus. Further easing is likely in the coming weeks. But if the virus peaks soon then... 6th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Easing cycle in Iceland has further to run This morning’s decision by the Central Bank of Iceland (CBI) to resume its easing cycle came as no surprise to us following the recent fall in inflation. Given the potential for the coronavirus to... 5th February 2020 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Bank of Thailand to ease further The Bank of Thailand (BoT) cut interest rates today, and with the economy being hit hard by a slump in tourist arrivals as well as disruption to its industrial sector as the coronavirus continues to... 5th February 2020 · 3 mins read
RBNZ Watch RBNZ should remain on hold despite coronavirus The new coronavirus will inevitably impact the New Zealand economy in the first quarter of 2020. Even so, the data has generally improved by more than the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ)... 5th February 2020 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand - Labour Market (Q4) The decline in the unemployment rate to 4.0% in New Zealand all but ensures that the RBNZ will keep rates on hold in February. And given that we forecast employment growth to rise in 2020, we think... 4th February 2020 · 2 mins read
Bank willing to accept below-target inflation The Bank of Canada has implied that it would be willing to accept below-target inflation during periods when financial vulnerabilities are elevated. Accelerating house price inflation means financial... 4th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - RBA will have to cut rates this year The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) sounded cautious when it left rates on hold today and we think persistent weakness in the underlying economy will force the Bank to cut interest rates to 0.5% in... 4th February 2020 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update PBOC steps up rate cuts in response to Coronavirus The People’s Bank has lowered the rates it charges banks for short-run liquidity. Given the mounting toll of the Coronavirus outbreak, we expect more cuts in the coming months. 3rd February 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - How overvalued is Australian housing? Even though house prices in Sydney and Melbourne plunged during the housing downturn, the house price to earnings ratio in both cities is still 40% higher than it was a decade ago. However, we think... 3rd February 2020 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Rate call on track, a Brexit transition into the unknown Thursday’s interest rate decision was a good first step on the road to vindicating our view that interest rates won’t be cut this year. And the Bank’s new forecast suggests that the bar to a rate cut... 31st January 2020 · 5 mins read
Monetary policy is losing its power over households The downward trend in interest rates that began in the 1980s contributed to large falls in household saving rates in most advanced economies. But with larger proportions of people now nearing... 30th January 2020 · 20 mins read
